Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) whale accumulation is contracting at the fastest pace this year as CryptoQuant warns the setup mirrors March 2022 bear market conditions.

Whale Balances Shrinking While Dolphin Growth Stalls

Whale balances—wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin—are shrinking year-over-year at the steepest rate of this cycle, matching the 2022 bear phase when accumulation first stalled before turning negative. 

Dolphin balances, dominated by ETFs and corporate treasury firms, continue growing annually but have decelerated sharply since peaking at 0.97 million Bitcoin in October 2025.

Monthly balance growth for both whales and dolphins now sits close to zero at the same time.

Moreover, dolphin monthly growth has been making lower highs since September 2025, while whale monthly growth has been flat since February 2026. 

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno describes this as the largest non-exchange holders shifting from active accumulation toward distribution.

Long-Term Holder Supply Hit Record 15.8M Bitcoin But It Is Not Bullish

Long-term holder supply reached a record 15.8 million Bitcoin, but Moreno warns against reading this as a positive signal. 

Supply rises when Bitcoin does not change hands at scale, meaning short-term demand is simply too weak to absorb coins from existing holders.

Short-term holder supply has fallen from 6.4 million Bitcoin in December 2025 to roughly 4.2 million now.

Moreno noted that roughly 900,000 Bitcoin of that decline came from Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) exchange reserves aging beyond the 155-day threshold into long-term holder status, mechanically inflating the figure without representing genuine new buyers entering the market.

IBIT Bled $177M As Bitcoin Presses Lower Bollinger Band

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) lost $177.94 million on Wednesday, part of nine consecutive days of outflows totaling over $2.7 billion in May. 

Total ETF net assets dropped from $109 billion to $94.25 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades at $72,811, pressing directly on the lower Bollinger Band at $72,551, the last technical cushion before open air.

The full EMA stack sits bearishly overhead between $76,361 and $76,554. A daily close below $72,551 opens a move toward $70,000 then $66,000 to $67,000. 

A bullish reversal requires ETF flows to flip positive and price to reclaim the EMA cluster at $76,361.

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