Copper has been an outstanding commodity performer year-to-date. Rallying about 10%, the orange metal has been one of the most debated topics on Wall Street. Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:COPX) is up 28.20% year-to-date.

On one side are the bulls—Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and HSBC—arguing that supply shortages and structural demand growth could send prices into uncharted territory. On the other hand, JP Morgan warns that investors may be overlooking macroeconomic risks that could pull copper sharply lower.

Finally, the current administration has its own say, as the White House has just revised its Section 232 tariff regime.

Supply Shocks and Tariff Fears

If the bullish camp is right, copper’s rally may be far from over.

Citigroup is in the lead of the bull pack, projecting prices will reach $14,500 per ton in June 2026 and $15,000 within the next year. Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end forecast to $13,735 per ton, while HSBC has been vocal on geopolitical disruptions and constrained trade flows.

However, the consensus bullish argument is simple – there is not enough copper.

Goldman estimates global mine supply will be reduced by roughly 350,000 tons because of disruptions at some of the world’s most important operations.

Grasberg, one of the largest copper mines, continues to struggle following last year’s mudslide. Meanwhile, operational setbacks plague the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Neither will reach full capacity until at least 2028.

At the same time, demand remains supported by long-term structural trends. The rapid buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, electric vehicles and power-grid upgrades continues to increase copper consumption globally.

Recent multibillion-dollar AI investment commitments from major technology companies underscore the scale of future metal demand, as many of these projects require significant copper-intensive electrical infrastructure and are difficult to delay once construction begins.

The supply picture tightens up even more through a trade perspective. U.S. inventories have swollen, starving the global market.

Per Goldman’s estimations, the copper deficit in the rest of the world could reach as high as 640,000 tons – more than 10 times previous expectations.

White House Tariff Revisions Meet Macro Reality Check

The bullish narrative, however, faces a formidable challenger in the broader economy.

On June 1, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation amending Section 232 tariffs, with changes taking effect on June 8. The proclamation lowered the threshold for imported products to qualify as domestically sourced. Instead of requiring 95% of domestic metal by weight, the bar has been lowered to 85%. The decision should incentivize the use of American commodities in downstream derivative products.

However, the JPMorgan outlook noted that policy shifts may matter less than investors think if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. The bank argues that copper prices at around $13,000 per ton do not fully reflect risks posed by slowing growth and elevated energy costs.

“If Brent oil prices were to hover around ~$110 per barrel (bbl) for the remainder of this year, our copper demand growth estimates for 2026 could be stripped by 1.4 percentage points,” Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy, wrote.

In that scenario, prices could retreat toward a support range of $11,100 to $11,200 per ton. Yet even JP Morgan acknowledges China as a dark horse safeguard.

Chinese buyers account for roughly 60% of global copper demand and have repeatedly stepped in whenever prices weaken. Dip-buying activity suggests manufacturers and traders are eager to rebuild inventories at lower price levels, potentially creating a floor beneath the market.

Photo by Ziadi Lotfi via Shutterstock