Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has expanded its driverless Robotaxi service to cover the entire Austin metropolitan area, but the company’s unsupervised fleet may have shrunk to as few as 20 active vehicles in the same period.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a research note this week that Tesla had removed safety monitors from robotaxis operating in the Austin geofence, which was widened on Wednesday.

The expansion more than doubled the operating zone, opening up highway driving along Interstate 35 and suburbs like Pflugerville and Manor.

The unsupervised fleet reportedly peaked at around 25 vehicles in late April, according to independent tracking data.

Fleet Shrinks As Map Grows

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) owned Waymo has 577 robotaxis registered in Texas, roughly 13 times Tesla’s total of 42 across the state, according to recent filings.

The company has said about 300 of its vehicles operate in Austin. That puts Tesla’s active fleet at around 7% of Waymo’s, despite the wider geofence.

Tesla’s vision-only approach makes a geofence expansion largely a software toggle, while Waymo’s reliance on LiDAR and high-definition maps requires scanning new areas block by block.

Tesla has the geographic reach in Austin, but Waymo has the fleet density.

Musk has tied broader scaling to FSD v15, an architectural overhaul of Tesla’s self-driving software targeted for late 2026 or early 2027.

On the Q1 earnings call, Musk said it would not make sense to deploy unsupervised FSD at large scale knowing major architectural improvements were pending.

Bettors See No California Launch By Month’s End

Polymarket traders price a 6% chance that Tesla launches an unsupervised robotaxi service in California by June 30, with more than $105,000 traded on the contract.

The Bay Area robotaxi service Tesla launched in April operates under a Transportation Charter Permit, the same designation used for human-driven taxis.

The company has not filed for a California DMV autonomous vehicle deployment permit, the gating requirement for a driverless commercial service.

Levy flagged the regulatory friction in January, saying the permit process may take until 2027.

He maintains an Equal Weight rating on TSLA with a $360 price target, contrasting sharply with Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who holds a Street-high $600 target and projects Robotaxis in more than 30 U.S. cities in 2026.

Investors may be largely forgiving the slow Robotaxi rollout due to the broader Musk halo effect. SpaceX‘s expected IPO on June 12 and Tesla’s joint Terafab semiconductor project in Austin have dominated the TSLA bull narrative this week.

Tesla shares are trading around $425 this morning.

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