Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw one of Wall Street’s more dramatic reversals in years on Friday as JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) tripled its price target on the stock and abandoned a bearish stance the bank held for nearly a decade.

The shift comes from JPMorgan’s new Tesla analyst Rajat Gupta, who took over coverage in early May from longtime bear Ryan Brinkman.

Brinkman’s final $145 target in April drew a one-word reply from Musk on X: “lol.”

The new target of $475 represents a 228% hike and implies roughly 13% upside from Thursday’s close. The rating moves to Neutral from Underweight.

A ‘Physical AI’ Conviction Call

Gupta recasts Tesla as a robotics and AI play rather than a legacy automaker, drawing parallels to Amazon’s Kiva robotics and AWS bets. The note flagged what Gupta described as Tesla’s “unmatched” vertical integration across hardware and software.

The bank forecasts an earnings inflection in 2028, with Tesla’s EPS rising from roughly $1.95 in 2026 to $7.50 by 2030. Revenue is projected to nearly double to $203 billion by 2030, with Robotaxi and Optimus services accounting for roughly half of that growth.

Gupta pointed to Tesla’s 10 billion cumulative FSD miles and roughly 9 million vehicles on the road as creating a data moat rivals will struggle to match.

Prediction Markets Are More Cautious

Polymarket gives just a 6% chance Tesla launches Robotaxis in California before the end of June, after recent reports the Austin fleet has shrunk to 20 vehicles.

Polymarket traders predict Tesla will hit the 450,000 to 475,000-unit range for deliveries in Q2 2026. That would mark a rebound from Q1’s 358,023 deliveries but remain shy of the 497,000 record set in Q3 2025 when federal EV tax credits were still in play.

Kalshi gives just a 13% chance Optimus will be released this year.

Upcoming SpaceX IPO

The upgrade lands a week before SpaceX is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq as SPCX. The rocket maker priced its offering at $135 per share, valuing it at roughly $1.77 trillion in what would be the largest IPO in history.

JPMorgan is one of the Lead underwriters on the deal.

Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with colleagues, with the topic openly discussed internally at Tesla. The carmaker already holds nearly 19 million SpaceX shares, worth roughly $2.6 billion at the IPO price.

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