Reddit, Inc. (NYSE:RDDT) shares are under pressure today after a one-two punch — Friday’s blowout jobs report rattled high-multiple growth names across the board, while the stock was also passed over for S&P 500 inclusion, disappointing investors who had been anticipating the move.
The Pressure Points
Friday’s jobs report showed 172,000 payrolls added in May — more than double the 80,000 consensus estimate — pushing the 10-year yield above 4.5% and leaving little room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates anytime soon. That’s bad news for high-multiple growth stocks like Reddit, whose valuations are heavily dependent on the expectation of lower rates ahead.
The S&P 500 exclusion added to the pain. Many retail investors on Stocktwits had been speculating Reddit would finally make the cut in Friday’s rebalance — when that didn’t happen, shares dropped in after-hours trading. Index inclusion would have forced passive funds to automatically buy the stock, providing a meaningful and sustained demand boost.
The dual hit comes at a sensitive time for the stock. Reddit has now fallen 28% this year despite strong revenue growth, with softer logged-in user growth continuing to weigh on investor sentiment.
Reddit also holds its Annual General Meeting today — any commentary from management on user growth or the status of its AI licensing renewals with Google and OpenAI will be closely watched.
Bull v. Bear Case
The key bull case centers on Reddit’s AI data licensing business. The company has over $200 million in arrangements with Google and OpenAI, with both deals up for renewal this year. Wells Fargo forecasts those renewals could generate $550 million in combined annual revenue — more than quadrupling the current run rate of roughly $130 million. RBC separately flagged that Google’s AI Search changes could drive more referral traffic back to Reddit, strengthening the company’s negotiating position going into those renewals.
The bear case is more straightforward. The primary risk is user growth stagnation — if daily active user growth disappoints for multiple quarters, revenue growth could decelerate before the margin expansion thesis plays out. Sustained insider selling by key executives has also weighed on sentiment. And with Meta’s new Forum app directly targeting Reddit’s core use case, competition is heating up at exactly the wrong time.
Reddit Shares Edge Lower
RDDT Price Action: At the time of publication, Reddit shares are trading 0.25% lower at $173.01, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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