NYU professor Scott Galloway warns a wave of upcoming AI IPOs could trigger an 80% collapse for one new market debut, and the aftershocks may hit already-public AI names like Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).

The Prof G Markets co-host issued the call on his podcast this week. SpaceX is set to list Friday at a fixed $135 per share, while Anthropic and OpenAI both disclosed confidential IPO filings within the past week.

“I got to think that in the next 12 to 24 months, one or two of these three companies is off 60 or 80%,” Galloway said. “I just don’t see how they maintain this momentum.”

Galloway compared the AI buildout to the railroad and dot-com booms, eras where transformative technology still produced crashes for the companies laying the infrastructure.

Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO) lost more than 90% of its value between 1999 and 2001 and never recovered.

The $400 Billion Supply Flood

Co-host Ed Elson estimated the upcoming raises may collectively demand around $400 billion in fresh equity, including SpaceX’s $75 billion listing at a reported $1.77 trillion valuation and anticipated $100 billion debuts from Anthropic and OpenAI.

Alphabet Inc’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) $84.75 billion equity offering rounds out the total. Last year’s entire IPO market raised just $44 billion, Elson said.

Why Tesla, Nvidia And Broadcom Could Get Caught In The Crossfire

Elson outlined the rotation risk: investors funding allocations in the new IPOs may need to sell something they already own.

“You’re probably trimming down on Tesla, for example, to get into SpaceX, or Nvidia or Broadcom,” Elson said. Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) has rallied alongside Nvidia on AI infrastructure demand.

Why The Bear Call May Be Overstated

Allianz Global Investors strategist Stefan Rondorf argued the IPO wave will result in reallocation rather than disruption. Index funds may need to sell around $40 billion of Nvidia stock to make room for a newly listed mega-cap, but that would represent less than 1% of the chipmaker’s total market value, he wrote.

The $400 billion headline figure also represents less than 1% of U.S. equity market capitalization, while money market funds hold more than $8 trillion in cash.

What Prediction Markets Are Watching

Polymarket traders give Anthropic a 71% chance of IPOing before OpenAI, validating Galloway’s call that the AI lab has the strongest narrative momentum.

SpaceX is favored at 81% to be 2026’s largest IPO by market cap, with Anthropic at 16% and OpenAI at 3%.

Traders are also pricing a 65% chance the rocket maker closes above a $2 trillion market cap, implying a meaningful pop above the $1.77 trillion IPO valuation.

The SpaceX IPO valuation remains a key signal for whether the broader supply flood will hold.

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