Editor’s note: the story was corrected to accurately reflect the relationship between Robinhood and Rothera.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off across North America Thursday, and Wall Street thinks the prediction market industry may be the biggest winner off the pitch.

Analysts at Bernstein called the expanded 48-team tournament a “watershed moment” for the sector and its single largest volume catalyst yet.

Bernstein estimates the tournament could drive more than $3 billion in bets on the event itself and lift overall consumer prediction market volume by $5 billion to $10 billion.

The 104-match schedule lands in June and July, historically the softest stretch for online sports betting handle.

Polymarket Traders Like Spain, Just Barely

On Polymarket, traders have made Spain the narrow favorite to lift the trophy at roughly 17%, edging France at 16% on a winner market that has already drawn around $2 billion in volume.

French Real Madrid Galactico Kylian Mbappé is the favorite to be the Golden Boot Winner, awarded to the player who scores the most goals.

The Tradeable Angle Runs Through DraftKings

Bernstein named DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) the clearest winner of the tournament. Its Predictions product is the company’s only legal sports offering in California, Texas and Florida, states that hold roughly half the U.S. Hispanic population.

That matters because regulated online sportsbooks currently under-index to the Hispanic consumer by 0.69x, making a Telemundo tie-in and Spanish-native app a sharp acquisition funnel. The firm sees the window adding about 650,000 funded accounts.

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) is making the most of the World Cup's U.S. launch with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group invested in Rothera last year through a joint venture.  

Bernstein projects prediction markets reaching a $586 million annualized revenue rate for Robinhood by year-end, roughly 17% of its transaction-based revenues.

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is offering World Cup contracts through its Kalshi partnership, a line that crossed $100 million in annualized revenue within two months of launch.

The Regulated Venues Are Winning The War

Over the trailing year, Kalshi’s monthly volume grew roughly 22x against Polymarket’s 7x, per a June study from Crane & Zeng Consulting.

In May, Kalshi surged 21% to $17.9 billion and about 57% share, while Polymarket fell 14.8% to $7.1 billion, or 22.7%.

The study, commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, estimated that roughly 30% of Polymarket’s offshore volume, about $16.7 billion over the trailing year, is American money flowing to a venue that legally cannot serve it.

That demand is increasingly migrating to regulated venues or being captured by proxies like Robinhood and Coinbase. The study also flagged Opinion, another prediction market site, whose $24.1 billion in volume it tied to suspected wash-trading or incentive-farming over a four-month spike.

Image: IMAGN