SpaceX IPO Valuation Gets $330 Bull Case If Its Biggest Opportunities Are Priced In

The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO is set for Friday, June 12, 2026. Analysts are starting to set their initial price targets, and here's an early look at what one analyst sees for the price target, 2030 revenue estimates, and how much shares could be worth if everything goes perfectly.

The SpaceX Analyst

New Street Research analysts led by Pierre Ferragu initiated coverage on SpaceX ahead of the IPO with a price target of $165.

The Analyst Takeaways

With SpaceX expected to price at $135, New Street Research sees 22% upside based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation and several other methodologies.

The analyst expects SpaceX to have revenue of $195.3 billion in 2030, broken down as $9.7 billion for Space, $57.9 billion for Connectivity and $127.7 billion for AI. The analyst sees revenue growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 60% from 2025 through 2030.

Estimates from the analyst show earnings per share hitting $3.30 in 2030.

Here is the breakdown of the sum-of-parts valuation from New Street Research:

• Telecom: $650 billion
• Launch: $100 billion
• xAI: $575 billion
• Premium of owning physical stack: $325 billion
• Premium of owning orbital data centers: $650 billion
• Total: $2.3 trillion

The sum-of-parts valuation of $2.3 trillion equals a price target of $165, offering 22% upside to the IPO price of $135.

The analyst said the valuation and a multiple of 45x 2030 EBIT/15x 2030 sales is consistent with high-growth peers such as Tesla, Palantir, Cloudflare and Anduril.

"The space opportunity is large and diversified and will play out over more than a decade," Ferragu said.

The analyst said that the total addressable market for space could be up to $20 trillion in 2040.

"If, though the whole opportunity grows to our high-end estimate and SpaceX wins 50% share, it would imply a fair value of $330/share."

The analyst sees a price target of $330 for 2040 if the total addressable market hits highs, providing upside of 144% based on the IPO price.

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq with the SPCX ticker.

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