XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has printed a TD Sequential buy signal on the 3-day chart, but analyst Ali Charts warns the signal is likely short-lived as whales have offloaded roughly 60 million XRP over the past week.

The Buy Signal Is Real But Whales Are Not Buying It

The TD Sequential indicator on the 3-day chart historically anticipates a one to four candlestick rebound, offering short-term relief from compression rather than a trend reversal.

The problem is that on-chain data contradicts the bullish read. Overall large-scale whale activity on the XRP network dropped 57.3%, and the few large entities still active are actively distributing rather than accumulating.

“Instead of absorbing circulating supply to support a bullish breakout, active whales have offloaded roughly 60 million XRP over the past week,” Ali Charts wrote on X. 

He argues the more attractive accumulation window sits at $0.90, where a multi-year rising trendline that has held as support for eight years sits beneath current price.

Prediction Markets Give 47% Odds XRP Drops Below $1

Polymarket’s crowd is not pricing in a recovery. The highest probability outcome at 47% is XRP falling below $1 by the end of June, nearly a coin flip. 

A further 7% chance prices drop below $0.80, meaning the market collectively assigns more than a 50% chance of XRP losing the dollar level entirely this month.

On the upside, only 9% odds exist for $1.40 and near-zero probability for anything above $1.60, leaving the crowd firmly positioned for continued weakness rather than any meaningful monthly recovery.

XRP Sits At A Descending Triangle Apex With Triple RSI Divergence Building

On the 2-hour chart, XRP is at the apex of a descending triangle with an imminent breakout decision approaching. 

Triple RSI bull divergence fired at the lows and MACD crossed bullish with the histogram narrowing, suggesting momentum is building beneath the compressed price structure.

Breaking above $1.1246, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, confirms a triangle breakout targeting $1.1702, then $1.2071, then $1.2440. 

Losing $1.0509, the absolute Fibonacci floor, triggers a measured triangle breakdown toward $0.95 to $0.90, aligning directly with where Ali Charts sees the real accumulation opportunity.

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