The S&P 500 surged on Thursday as easing concerns over the U.S.-Iran war and a rebound in semiconductor stocks sparked a broad market rally. Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will extend those gains at Friday’s open.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.75% to close at 7,394.30 on Thursday, recovering much of the prior session’s losses after President Donald Trump signaled that a peace agreement with Iran could be signed soon. The June 12 Polymarket contract implied an 83% probability that the index will open higher on Friday.
Why That Number Matters
Investor sentiment improved sharply after Trump said a deal with Iran was nearing completion and confirmed that planned U.S. strikes had been called off.
The president told reporters Thursday that a signing was expected soon and that the agreement would ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. Oil prices fell in response, easing inflation concerns that had weighed on markets earlier in the week.
Attention is now shifting to SpaceX‘s highly anticipated Nasdaq debut. The company is set to raise $75 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history.
The Bull Case
Thursday’s rally was supported by a powerful rebound in semiconductor stocks, which had come under pressure in recent sessions.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) gained more than 8%, while Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) all moved sharply higher.
Still, concerns remain that technology valuations have become stretched following the AI-driven rally.
Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) shares fell 8% on Thursday after announcing plans to raise an additional $20 billion to fund its artificial intelligence expansion, highlighting growing investor scrutiny of AI-related spending.
S&P 500 futures were up about 0.18% early Friday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 7,287.67, above Wednesday’s close of 7,266.99, meaning the June 11 Polymarket bet resolved “Up.” The contract recorded around $90,000 in traded volume before settling.
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