Bitwise Head of Research Europe André Dragosch said Friday that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) faces up to 20% further downside from current levels, with the long-term holder cost basis near $48,000 as his max pain scenario.

Three Support Levels Stack Between $48,000 and $61,000

Dragosch mapped out the structural supports sitting beneath current spot price at BTC Prague Thursday. 

The 200-week moving average sits near $61,000, the realized price near $56,000, and the long-term holder cost basis near $48,000. 

Each level represents a zone where historically buyers have stepped in, with $48,000 being the worst-case floor if all three give way.

Despite the bearish downside scenario, Bitwise’s experimental bottom-cycle probability model began ticking higher last week, even as on-chain indicators remain below the extremes that typically mark prior cycle lows. 

Dragosch attributed the recent sell-off primarily to roughly $2 billion in weekly ETP net outflows, equivalent to about 50,000 Bitcoin sold into the market over a short period, rather than any meaningful deceleration in corporate treasury buying from Strategy and other firms.

Galaxy Says Only 4 Of 13 Bottoming Indicators Have Triggered

Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn added a similarly cautious read, stating Bitcoin has not yet bottomed. 

In a report published Thursday, Galaxy noted only four of 13 historical bottoming indicators have fired so far. 

The firm projects a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 sometime between now and Q4 2026, while noting that traditional assumptions of 75% to 80% peak-to-trough declines are less likely as cycle amplitudes compress.

Bitcoin fell roughly 28% from its May high near $82,000 to below $60,000 during the latest drawdown before recovering to $63,300 Friday, up 0.9% on the day. Dragosch expects the market bottom to arrive before the consensus October halving-cycle timing.

Alt Season Depends Entirely On The CLARITY Act

On altcoins, Dragosch said Bitwise’s Altcoin Excitement Index shows no signal. 

The catalyst for any alt season rotation hinges on whether the US passes the CLARITY Act, which Polymarket currently prices at roughly 60% odds for passage this year. 

Without that legislative unlock, Dragosch sees no structural catalyst to rotate capital from Bitcoin into the broader altcoin market.

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