• Initial loss of Gulf supply seen at 12-15 million bpd
  • Current disruptions could be as small as 5-6 million bpd, sources say
  • Recent Trump comments, ship tracking show millions of barrels getting out
  • Reined-in Chinese buying helping ease market pressure
  • Oil futures that surged to almost $120 now below $90

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Since the start of the Iran war and Tehran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was "closed", the market has grappled to put a figure on lost crude supply and to predict the price of oil.

Initial calculations were simple: add up all non-Iranian Gulf crude oil exports, some 12 million to 15 million barrels a day, and you easily have the biggest crisis in history.

Accordingly, benchmark Brent crude futures shot to nearly $120 per barrel in early March. Analysts warned it was just the beginning as forecasts of $200 hit the headlines triggering inflationary concerns for consumers and businesses.

Tankers dropped anchor as Iran's threats made voyages too risky, and trying to spot any tanker making a run for it was nearly impossible due to U.S. curbs on satellite imagery over the Gulf and ships spoofing their locations.

 

MILLIONS OF BARRELS ARE GETTING OUT

But tankers have escaped, some spotted by ship-tracking firms, some unseen, and as evidence comes to light, the market is adding up these volumes as it examines why oil has fallen below $90 despite the Iran war rumbling on, wrongfooting market bulls.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said over 100 million barrels of oil had passed through the strait as part of what he called a secret U.S. mission to support oil tankers.

Shipping data firm Kpler estimated that some 136 million barrels of non-Iranian crude had moved through Hormuz and Gulf of Oman export channels between the start of April and June 10, or about 1.9 million barrels a day.

"After an initial disruption at the onset of the conflict, flows strengthened as alternative logistics scaled up," Kpler said.

Among these "alternative logistics" have been Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE exporting large quantities of crude in tankers with their satellite systems turned off - sometimes in arrangements with Iran and sometimes without, according to trading sources.

Those exports add to oil flows of around 4 to 5 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia, which has been shipping from its Red Sea port of Yanbu since March.