Investor Chamath Palihapitiya has shared a detailed breakdown of SpaceX and its valuation ahead of the company's highly anticipated IPO. In his analysis, he compares SpaceX's impact on space access to a historic shift in global trade that dates back to 1497.
A Centuries‑Old Analogy for SpaceX's Moment
Palihapitiya is no stranger to the space sector. He previously served as chairman of Virgin Galactic, which he helped take public through a SPAC merger. Through his venture fund Social Capital, he is also an investor in SpaceX.
In his new deep dive, Palihapitiya argues that SpaceX's value stems from one core idea: the company has dramatically lowered the cost of reaching space, unlocking opportunities that were previously impossible.
"That valuation is based on the thesis that SpaceX has opened the lowest‑cost route into space, and that the largest opportunities are still ahead," he said, posting his views on X.com.
To illustrate the point, Palihapitiya reaches back to 1497. At the time, spices reached Europe through land routes controlled by middlemen who marked up prices by 20 to 30 times. That changed when explorer Vasco da Gama discovered a sea route around the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing those middlemen and slashing costs.
"That single move collapsed the entire cost structure of the trade. The companies that controlled the new maritime trade became some of the most valuable in history," he said.
Those companies included the East India Company and the Dutch East India Company, founded in 1600 and 1602. At its peak, the Dutch East India Company's market capitalization equaled roughly one‑third of the Dutch Republic's annual economic output.
"SpaceX is changing the economics of reaching space the way Vasco da Gama changed the economics of reaching Asia," Palihapitiya said.
How SpaceX Reshaped The Cost of Orbit
According to Palihapitiya, the cost of reaching orbit was once so high that only governments could afford it. SpaceX changed that equation.
"In 2025, they launched 85% of all satellites, more than every other space program on Earth combined. They did it by making rockets reusable, increasing launch cadence, and bringing more manufacturing in‑house."
SpaceX has reduced the cost of reaching low Earth orbit to $2,720 per kilogram, down from $54,500 years earlier — a 20× reduction.
The SpaceX Opportunity
"SpaceX now sits on the main commercial route to orbit, and Starlink is the first proof of what that route can unlock," Palihapitiya said.
He argues that dramatically lower launch costs don't just make satellite internet possible — they position SpaceX to build the world's largest orbital network.
"The same route that made orbital broadband possible may now reveal the next frontier opportunity for SpaceX: orbital compute."
According to Palihapitiya, cheaper access to space opens three major opportunities: connectivity, compute, and critical minerals.
His breakdown highlights how data centers in orbit could create entirely new markets, while space‑based critical minerals could help the United States reduce dependence on resources controlled by China.
Photo courtesy: CarlaVanWagoner / Shutterstock.com
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