A Polymarket trader known as initial77a is risking more than $500,000 on the U.S. men’s national team to lose its World Cup opener against Paraguay on Friday night.

If the bet hits, the payout runs to roughly $972,000, according to a post from the platform’s official sports account.

A Half-Million-Dollar Bet Against The Hosts

The position pays out if the U.S. fails to win its opener in Los Angeles. A draw would also cash the ticket, so “lose” is the punchier framing than the literal one.

initial77a has logged 296 predictions and holds around $691,600 in open positions, and is up over $83,000.

Their biggest win to date is about $176,100 in profit, booked in April when a $150,000 stake on Sevilla to win returned around $326,000.

The same account also holds about $105,000 on Canada to beat Bosnia today, and $11,000 on the White Sox beating the LA Dodgers.

The Case For A U.S. Stumble

Paraguay may be without key attacker Julio Enciso through injury, but the whale only needs the team to avoid defeat, and the Paraguay manager Gustavo Alfaro has built a compact, defensive side that scored just 14 goals in qualifying yet is hard to break down.

Initial77a has also backed the under at 2.5 goals. A tense draw would mark a frustrating start for Mauricio Pochettino on home soil.

The US has looked inconsistent, conceding seven goals across March friendly losses to Belgium and Portugal and falling 2-1 to Germany this month.

The World Cup Is Polymarket’s Biggest Event Yet

The flagship “World Cup Winner” market alone has taken close to $2.1 billion, extending a prediction market boom that has run for much of the past year.

That scale is what DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) is chasing.

CEO Jason Robins told investors in May that sports event contracts are a strategic priority, and the company has built out its DraftKings Predictions app and acquired the Railbird exchange.

Right now that trade lives on Polymarket, not DraftKings. Closing that gap is why the company is spending so aggressively, and the tournament’s $2 billion pot shows how much is at stake.

Image: IMAGN