Arthur Hayes made his name posting his own trades, but the BitMEX co-founder is now denying that he used his followers as exit liquidity, dumping altcoins on them after hyping the tokens.

His defense doubles as a theory for why Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has lagged while AI stocks soared.

The accusation came from on-chain investigator ZachXBT, who said Hayes pumped tokens like Zcash and Worldcoin, then sold them on his audience.

Hayes pushed back, saying he is not a money manager or financial advisor and never tells anyone what to buy.

Why Hayes Says Bitcoin Got Left Behind

Hayes admitted his old model was wrong. He has long argued that rising fiat liquidity should lift Bitcoin, yet the coin has fallen even as the money supply grew.

He now blames AI, estimating roughly $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt since 2022, with most of it arriving in 2025.

That money chased AI names like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which has climbed from about $15 on a split-adjusted basis in early 2023 to near $205, rather than crypto. That left Bitcoin to “get thrown out with the bathwater,” he said.

What Could Pop The Bubble

Hayes flagged three pressures. The first is energy, as an oil spike, perhaps from a Strait of Hormuz disruption, would raise the cost per AI token and undercut the case for endless scaling.

The second is politics. Hayes thinks Trump may flip on AI before the election, leaning into fears over job losses and data-center inflation to push taxes or regulation that could puncture the trade.

The third is supply, with the three mega IPOs set to soak up cash this fall.

What The Prediction Markets Say

Bitcoin is trading near $63,360 on Friday, far below the roughly $125,000 all time high from last October.

On Polymarket, traders give Bitcoin just a 10% chance of reclaiming that high this year, while pricing a 55% chance it slides to $50,000 first.

Meanwhile, the same site prices the chance of the AI bubble bursting this year at 22%. Hayes expects Bitcoin to recover only once that bubble bursts.

Image: Shutterstock