In the latest episode of geopolitical Deal or No Deal, the U.S. and Iran appear to be on the verge of an agreement to end the war.

We've been here before and heard many similar claims from the Trump administration and Iranian officials over the last few months, but energy markets appear to believe there's some fire to the smoke. Crude prices declined in May, the first monthly decline of the year.

And while global oil stockpiles are dwindling to alarming levels, the most calamitous conditions have been avoided (so far).

Even if this agreement proves to be another false start, the global economy is learning to deal with elevated oil prices, and that could be bad news for oil and gas companies that have enjoyed massive gains to start the year.

Here are four oil stocks to consider selling crude oil prices keep dropping.

Kosmos Energy Ltd.

Small-cap West African oil driller Kosmos Energy (NYSE:KOS) hasn't just outperformed the energy sector; it's outperforming practically the entire market in 2026. Despite a market cap under $2 billion, KOS shares have soared more than 220% year-to-date (YTD).

The stock's ascent began in early January as well, so there was more than the Strait of Hormuz closure driving this price higher. High crude prices were easily leveraged, and the company was set to turn a nice profit.

But the company's Q1 2026 earnings results surprised with a $0.07-per-share loss, and analysts have quickly reduced EPS forecasts for the stock. Mizuho downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral a few weeks after the report once crude prices appeared to stabilize, and there's limited upside left in KOS shares based on consensus price targets.

The technical waters are growing murky as well. Support at the 50-day moving average has turned into a crutch, keeping the stock in a tight range as oil prices drift lower. However, other technical indicators are flashing red: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is careening lower at a rapid pace, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered bearish territory below 50.

Valero Energy Corp.

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is one of the largest U.S. refiners, and one of the biggest beneficiaries of the crack spread volatility that persisted early in the war. Crack spreads measure the gap between raw crude prices and the prices of finished products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. When crude prices surged in March, crack spreads surged even wider, and refiners pocketed the difference in profit.

In Q1 2026, Valero reported its first quarter of year-over-year (YoY) revenue since Q4 2022. But now the market trends that took the stock to new heights are unwinding. Crack spreads are normalizing, and an accident at the company's Port Arthur facility took a significant portion of capacity offline just as Valero was monetizing the crack spread gap.

VLO shares still appear to have long-term momentum, but a few troubling technical patterns are emerging. The dreaded double top has appeared above the 50-day moving average, which could signify the next resistance level for the stock's upward momentum.

And unfortunately for VLO shareholders, the MACD shows that upward momentum has been muted since the end of April. Valero investors are sitting on a nearly 60% YTD gain, so harvesting some profits while the main driver of the trade unwinds seems like a reasonable strategy.

HF Sinclair Corp.

Owner of seven U.S. refineries (and the coveted DINO stock ticker), HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) rode a similar wave as Valero. When the crack spread began to widen, so did the gap between HF Sinclair's stock price and its underlying fundamentals.

Revenue grew more than 11% YoY during Q1 2026, but that tailwind is about to end just as management scrutiny ramps up. CEO Tim Go took a voluntary leave of absence in February, and CFO Atanas Atanasov (who had also been on leave since February) was abruptly terminated by the company on May 13th.

Mizuho downgraded DINO shares from Overweight to Neutral on the move, citing uncertainty regarding the company's strategic direction following the management shakeup. The share price is already above even the most optimistic analyst price targets, which suggests the rally has exceeded underlying fundamentals.

Another double top is forming on the DINO chart, only with more problematic underlying technical signals. The signal line has now crossed below the MACD line, a common bearish flashpoint, and the RSI is now testing 50. A dip below 50 on the RSI could push the share price below the 50-day moving average, which in turn could trigger another selling cascade. Best to take profits now and avoid that situation entirely.

Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) is an integrated, diversified energy company with upstream and downstream business segments. It also completed the selloff of its chemicals segment in early January, meaning it could capture all the upside from the crude oil price move without competing headwinds from other divisions.

The timing couldn't have been better; OXY stock rose from $42 to $66 in the first three months of 2026, reaching its highest level in more than two years. But now that the trade is unwinding and crude prices are under $90 a barrel, which means the onus is back on Occidental's burdensome debt load (over $20 billion in obligations even after the OxyChem proceeds).

The company is highly overlevered relative to most of its large-cap upstream peers, trading at 75 times earnings and 2.6 times sales. The dividend is also under pressure with a 132% payout ratio.

The rally in OXY shares has already started to crumble, and the chart is producing several signals that should be red flags for investors. The 50-day moving average is still above the 200-day moving average, but these indicators are starting to roll over, and the 50-day could now be a resistance level rather than a support level.

The stock is getting no help from momentum indicators either. The MACD triggered a bearish crossover in April, draining buyers from the market and allowing the price to drift lower. The RSI is also now firmly in bearish territory, hinting that there's more downside ahead as crude prices continue to decline.