Elon Musk once thought SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) had "less than a 10% chance" of working when he first started it, a gamble that has since turned into one of the most valuable and influential companies in the global space industry.
Elon Musk Admits He Expected SpaceX To Fail
Addressing employees in Texas on Friday, shortly before ringing the opening bell for SpaceX's first day of trading, the CEO acknowledged that he initially expected the company to fail.
"I gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance of succeeding at all, to be clear. In fact, I told people this. I said, ‘look, we’re probably gonna fail, but you know, should give it a try because if we don’t… we will never be a truly space-bearing civilization,'" he stated.
From PayPal Windfall To Mars Ambition
In 2001, 30-year-old Musk had already sold Zip2 and X.com (later PayPal) for hundreds of millions. Seeking a mission beyond internet companies, he turned his focus to ensuring humanity's long-term future, especially life on Mars, CNBC reported in 2018.
He explored low-cost Russian rockets to reach space and, through the Mars Society, was introduced to Jim Cantrell, an aerospace consultant with experience at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and a joint Mars balloon project with France and the Soviet Union.
When Musk first called, Cantrell was driving with the top down and could barely hear him. "All I could make out was that some guy… he was an internet billionaire and needed to talk to me," he recalled in a 2012 interview with Esquire.
He later described Musk's pitch as rapid and rehearsed. "It was almost staccato how quickly he spoke," he told Wired in 2018, noting there was no small talk—just a direct sales pitch.
Cantrell would go on to join SpaceX in its early days and said the pitch was so memorable that he could recite it years later.
Founding SpaceX And A Risky Bet
In 2002, Musk founded SpaceX in California, investing roughly $100 million of his fortune into the startup, Fortune reported.
Early team members included propulsion engineer Tom Mueller, who joined as the company's first hire.
Early Failures Nearly End The Company
SpaceX's first rocket, Falcon 1, faced repeated setbacks. Its initial launches in 2006, 2007 and 2008 all failed due to explosions or technical issues, leaving the company on the brink of collapse.
Funding briefly dried up and Musk relied on outside support to keep the company alive.
Breakthrough Success And NASA Validation
In September 2008, Falcon 1 finally reached orbit, making history as the first privately developed liquid-fueled rocket to do so. The achievement led to a $1.6 billion NASA contract to resupply the International Space Station.
That deal marked SpaceX's transition from struggling startup to serious aerospace competitor.
Reusable Rockets And Industry Disruption
SpaceX later introduced the Falcon 9 and achieved a breakthrough in 2015 by successfully landing and reusing a rocket booster. The innovation dramatically reduced launch costs and reshaped global spaceflight economics.
The company went on to launch astronauts for NASA in 2020, becoming the first private firm to do so from U.S. soil.
A $2 Trillion Space Powerhouse
Today, SpaceX dominates commercial spaceflight, handling a majority of global rocket launches and operating Starlink, a satellite internet network with thousands of satellites in orbit.
What began as a high-risk idea with slim odds has evolved into a company valued at roughly $2 trillion, positioning SpaceX among the world's most valuable enterprises.
SpaceX went public Friday, selling 555.6 million shares at $135 each and raising $75 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing as the largest IPO on record. Shares opened at $150 and climbed as high as $176.52 in early trading.
According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, SpaceX is exhibiting a positive price trend across the short, medium and long-term.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo Courtesy: Samuel Boivin on Shutterstock.com
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