Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered each published in-depth Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bottom analysis this week—and reached three completely different conclusions on where the cycle low lands.

Galaxy Says Bottom Is Still Ahead Between $40,000 and $46,000

Galaxy examined 13 historical conditions that have always been present at prior Bitcoin cycle bottoms. 

Only four are fully met, two are partially met, and seven remain unmet.

The most sobering gap is in on-chain fundamentals, where several metrics show aggregate holders are not yet capitulating at the scale seen in 2018 or 2022.

The cycle clock adds weight to Galaxy’s bearish case.

Bitcoin historically bottoms 12 to 13 months after its all-time high, and the current cycle peaked in October 2025, putting the historically consistent bottom window in Q4 2026.

Meanwhile, Galaxy’s base case sits between $40,000 and $46,000.

NYDIG: This Could Be Bitcoin’s Shallowest Bear Market Ever

NYDIG compared the current drawdown to prior cycles and found characteristics consistent with a cyclical low but not the outright capitulation that has historically marked major bottoms. 

The current decline of roughly 53% from the October 2025 peak at $126,296 is notably shallower than any prior cycle.

Prior cycles bottomed at 92% to 96% of their previous all-time high, meaning each trough remained relatively close to the prior peak. 

The current cycle sits at just 67.9% of that prior peak, suggesting either the bottom is unusually deep by historical norms or more downside remains.

NYDIG left open the possibility that institutional demand fundamentally altered this cycle, potentially making the current level the floor.

Standard Chartered Bitcoin Forecast: $59,000 Was the Low, $100,000 by Year-End

Standard Chartered called the bottom at $59,000 last Friday, pointing to the US-Iran peace deal and the SpaceX IPO as dual catalysts. 

The firm argued ETF holders had been selling Bitcoin to raise cash for the SpaceX offering, and that selling pressure would now ease. Standard Chartered now targets $100,000 by year-end.

Despite their differences, all three firms agree on three things: the bottom arrives this year, Bitcoin is closer to the low than the high, and another bull cycle follows. 

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan framed the debate pointedly: the real question is not whether the bottom is in. It is whether the top is in.

All three firms say no.

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