An anonymous Polymarket trader known as “fishalive” booked a roughly $9 million profit on about $4.2 million of bets against Spain on Monday, cashing in on one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.

Spain came in as the reigning European champion and a tournament favorite, priced near 92% to beat Cabo Verde on Polymarket and given a 26% chance to lift the trophy by a Goldman Sachs model.

Cabo Verde, an archipelago of about half a million people off the coast of West Africa, had never before qualified for a World Cup and fielded no stars.

The debutants held the champions to a scoreless draw.

How Two Bets Won $9 Million

The winning account made just two wagers, both against Spain. One bet that Spain would not win the match returned about $4.7 million. The other faded Spain on the spread, where the favorite needed to win by three goals or more, and paid roughly $8.5 million.

After staking about $4.2 million for the near $9 million profit, the trader drained the account to zero. Spain’s odds of winning the tournament slid from 17% to 14% on Polymarket after the game.

The Man On The Other Side

The draw hinged on Vozinha, Cabo Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper, who made seven saves and won player of the match.

He is a late bloomer who did not turn professional until 25 and now keeps goal for Chaves in the Portuguese second division.

Vozinha was ever-present through Cabo Verde’s qualifying campaign, conceding eight goals in 10 games and keeping seven clean sheets.

At the final whistle, the goalie hunched over near his goal and cried. “He was overwhelmed with emotion,” Cabo Verde manager Bubista said, calling it “a cry of resilience.”

He dedicated the match to his late grandparents, who raised him. As a boy, other kids nicknamed him “Vozinha,” or “little grandmother,” for running home crying to them.

His mother could not attend the game either, unable to secure a US visa in time after a rule introduced in January began requiring visitors from Cabo Verde to post a returnable bond of up to $15,000.

The performance turned him into a global figure within hours, his Instagram following surging from around 50,000 to roughly 7 million by Tuesday morning.

The anonymous trader who faded Spain walked off with eight figures, and that kind of action is exactly what is repricing Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD).

Event contracts are now Robinhood’s fastest-growing business by revenue. Bernstein projects the segment may generate $586 million this year, up from $150 million in 2025, and HOOD shares rose Monday after the firm flagged World Cup volume topping Super Bowl levels.

Image: IMAGN