The race to build artificial intelligence infrastructure is no longer just a technology story. According to JPMorgan, it’s rapidly becoming one of the largest financing stories on Wall Street.
In an analyst report, published Tuesday, the firm projected that AI-related debt financing will reach $4.1 trillion through 2030. That’s up from previous estimates, as hyperscalers, data center developers, and chip buyers scramble to fund an unprecedented wave of capital spending.
The forecast comes as AI-related debt issuance has already surpassed $300 billion in 2026, with data center borrowing emerging as one of the biggest drivers of corporate credit markets this year.
A $5.5 Trillion AI Buildout
JPMorgan is also projecting AI capital expenditures to reach $5.5 trillion through 2030, up from a prior estimate of $5.1 trillion.
The increase reflects expectations for 138 gigawatts of data center capacity growth by the end of the decade, compared with a previous forecast of 122 gigawatts. The bank noted that developers are finding creative ways to address power constraints through behind-the-meter power agreements, bring-your-own-power solutions and more efficient computing infrastructure.
Despite concerns about the scale of spending, JPMorgan says major technology companies remain well-positioned to fund expansion.
The bank expects hyperscaler capital expenditures to reach $650 billion in 2026 and exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027, while the group’s operating cash flow could surpass $900 billion in 2027.
Debt Markets Take Center Stage
The spending wave has implications across public markets, from AI chip leaders Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) to data-center landlords Equinix, Inc. (NASDAQ:EQIX) and Digital Realty Trust, Inc (NYSE:DLR) while hyperscalers Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) remain among the biggest drivers of AI infrastructure demand.
While equity investors have largely focused on AI winners such as chipmakers and software companies, JPMorgan argues that credit markets may ultimately do much of the heavy lifting.
The firm expects high-grade corporate debt markets alone to provide more than $2.1 trillion of financing for AI infrastructure over the next five years. Another $350 billion could come from leveraged finance markets.
Loan-to-cost ratios have also climbed across the sector, with disclosed projects frequently financed at more than 85% of development costs and some exceeding 90%, according to the report.
The Next Financing Wave: GPUs
JPMorgan believes the next major funding challenge may involve AI chips themselves.
The bank estimates that more than $3 trillion of financing could be required for GPUs and custom AI accelerators over the next five years as companies continue expanding computing capacity and eventually replace existing hardware.
“Finding the right silicon financing paradigm is the billion-dollar question,” the team, led by Tarek Hamid, wrote.
Private credit firms have played a growing role in financing AI hardware purchases, but JPMorgan expects public markets will eventually need to provide a much larger share of funding.
For investors, the takeaway is simple: the AI boom may be driven by technology, but increasingly it is being powered by debt markets.
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