Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) briefly bounced to $65,000 following the Iran peace deal, but Glassnode’s weekly report shows 95% of recent buyers remain underwater, with the market still in bear territory.

Why Did The Peace Deal Bounce Bitcoin But Not Fix The Chart?

WTI crude fell from $86 to $76 in 48 hours after the June 14 peace deal, draining the geopolitical risk premium that had compressed Bitcoin for three weeks. 

Bitcoin recovered from its lows but remains 15% below the True Market Mean at $77,200, the on-chain threshold that separates bear from bull market regimes. Until price reclaims that level, the structural read stays bearish.

The Short-Term Holder MVRV, which measures whether recent buyers are in profit or loss, recovered from 0.81 to 0.90 but stays below the 1.0 breakeven threshold. 

The implied cost basis for recent buyers sits near $72,600, leaving them roughly 10% underwater on average. Until STH MVRV reclaims 1.0, this entire cohort represents overhead supply on every attempted recovery.

Capital Is Still Leaving, Not Arriving

The Realized Cap, which measures aggregate capital invested in Bitcoin, contracted 1.45% over 90 days to $1.07 trillion. 

The 30-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio sits at 0.53, confirming losses are outpacing profits across most of the past month. 

The one tentative positive is the 7-day Realized Cap change nearly stalling at -0.18%, suggesting the outflow pace is slowing.

Three conditions need to be met before Glassnode considers a credible transition out of bear territory: 

Bitcoin must reclaim the True Market Mean at $77,200, Short-Term Holder MVRV must return above 1.0, and Realized Cap must turn positive on a 90-day basis.

Order Books Are Rebuilding And Patient Buyers Are Absorbing Supply

Binance spot order book depth has shifted to bid-side dominance by the widest margin in recent months, with passive buyers absorbing supply at lower levels rather than selling into strength.

Open interest remains subdued, and funding rates sit near neutral, neither crowded long nor aggressively short.

Options markets confirm the stress is easing. One-month implied volatility dropped from 50% to 35% as the protection premium built during the selloff unwinds. 

The negative gamma cluster sits at $68,000, just above current spot, meaning dealer hedging activity could accelerate any move through that level in either direction.

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