Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz began recovering following a U.S.-Iran agreement aimed at preserving the ceasefire and restoring navigation through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Kpler data logged 25 verified crossings through the Strait on June 18, the highest since April, split evenly in both directions.
No physical attacks have been reported since May 10.
On Wednesday, the United States and Iran signed an interim memorandum of understanding electronically that lifts the US blockade and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, with a waiver for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports that could release more than 50 million barrels of crude sitting on the water.
Goldman Sachs Sees Hormuz Flows Recovering By July
Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the reopening could trigger a relatively swift normalization of oil exports from the Persian Gulf.
“We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre-war levels by end of July and Persian Gulf crude production recover by October,” Goldman’s Yulia Zhetskova Grigsby said in a note this week.
The bank estimates that Gulf exports can return to normal even if visible Hormuz traffic only recovers to roughly 70% of pre-war levels, thanks to alternative routes and logistics adjustments developed during the conflict.
Goldman estimates a 12.7-million-barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows would be enough to restore exports to pre-war levels.
The bank also sees little evidence that tanker availability will constrain the recovery, estimating that vessels positioned within or near the Strait have the capacity to load roughly 861 million barrels.
However, Goldman warned that shipowners remain cautious and that risk aversion among shippers could continue limiting traffic during upcoming nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
Businesses Aren’t Convinced The Crisis Is Ending
While Wall Street is becoming more optimistic, businesses appear far less convinced that the Strait will quickly return to normal.
A new Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey led by Jamie Thompson, head of Macro Scenarios, found that more than two-fifths of businesses expect transit through the Strait of Hormuz to remain below pre-war levels not only for the remainder of 2026 but also into 2027.
The survey, conducted among 144 businesses between May 28 and June 16, showed companies remain concerned that disruptions could persist despite the U.S.-Iran agreement.
Oxford Economics said businesses appear “resigned to a protracted period of disruption” and noted that the share of respondents expecting Hormuz disruptions to last into 2027 has roughly doubled compared with April.
The survey also revealed that nearly three-fifths of respondents still view the Middle East as a very significant risk to the global economy over the next two years. Businesses continue to assign roughly a 30% probability to either renewed energy market disruptions or an extended period of constrained shipping through Hormuz.
Oil Rebounds From Key Technical Support
West Texas Intermediate – as tracked by the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO) – touched a weekly low near $73 on Thursday, found a bid off its 200-day moving average and rebounded to $76 after Switzerland said the next round of US-Iran talks would not take place as scheduled.
Crude is trading as if the crisis is all but over, up just 12% from pre-war levels.
The companies that burn the oil are budgeting as if it has another eighteen months to run.
One of them is wrong.
Login to comment