'A Spike Like You Never Saw Before:' Dan Dicker Says Oil Could Jump From $75 To $135 A Barrel

Oil market expert Dan Dicker warned that shrinking global oil inventories could trigger a sharp rally in crude prices, even as markets focus on improving supply conditions following the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Shrinking Stockpiles Raise Concerns

“Unless this deal gets done to a much more firm degree, oil starts to flow seriously and rebuild some of those stockpiles that have been draining for the past three months,” Dicker said in an interview with Bloomberg on Sunday.

According to Dicker, shrinking inventories have yet to be fully reflected in crude prices.

“The question becomes, when does the physical reality of these low stockpiles actually hit the financial markets that are controlling the price of oil,” Dicker added.

Supply Recovery Remains Critical

He said that unless supply conditions improve significantly, the drawdown in inventories could continue, increasing pressure on the physical oil market.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Washington would lift its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after the first round of talks in Switzerland, a move expected to improve shipping flows through one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.

Last week, the International Energy Agency said global oil production could increase by roughly 8 million barrels per day by 2027 as Gulf producers gradually restore output, potentially creating a significant supply overhang in global markets.

‘A Spike Like You Never Saw Before’

Dicker said the physical market could eventually force a sharp repricing in crude oil if inventories remain depleted.

Rather than moving from $75 to $85 per barrel, he said oil could rise from roughly $75 to $135 within a month if inventories remain constrained and supply fails to recover.

“When these stockpiles reach the physical reality of the futures markets, you’re going to see a spike like you never saw before,” Dicker said.

Dicker referenced recent comments from executives at Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM), saying oil producers have cautioned that they cannot quickly offset the impact of shrinking inventories if supply conditions deteriorate further.

Crude oil traded around $76 per barrel on Monday, down about 2.5%, as markets weighed improving supply prospects following the U.S.-Iran agreement.

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