Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says crypto may be approaching the kind of contrarian setup that historically emerges when investors lose patience but warned that near-term momentum still looks weak.

“We’ll Be Much Higher In A Year“

Speaking on June 21 on the Milk Road Show, Hougan said Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could still see further downside to around $30,000 if the four-year cycle plays out.

Still, Hougan does not see this as the most likely outcome.

“It feels like somewhere around $50,000 is where many of the people who have been calling for this bear market think it ends,” Hougan said.

“I suspect we’ll be much higher in a year, but I don’t know where the bottom is.”

Hougan said his preferred short-term market indicator like the 10/20-day or 5/20-day signals remain bearish.

Monthly performance remained weak across major cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) down 13%, while Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) shed 10%.

Institutional Interest Remains High

Despite the market weakness, Hougan said institutional conversations around crypto remain active, particularly around Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and tokenization.

“I’ve had more sales meetings today than I’ve had in a single day this year,” he said, adding that institutional interest usually slows sharply in August.

Hougan said most institutional investors are still focused on Bitcoin first, followed by Ethereum, Solana, stablecoins and tokenization. Awareness of newer crypto assets remains limited.

Hougan said the best opportunities in crypto often arrive when sentiment is washed out, prominent bulls give up and the asset class becomes uncomfortable to own.

He said uncertainty around crypto regulation is keeping capital on the sidelines and thus getting pushed towards AI stocks.

“The market hates uncertainty more than it hates bad news," Hougan said. "I think we’ll be better off when we get past the CLARITY Act.”

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