Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) faces a $10 billion quarterly options expiry on Friday but is trading below its “maximum pain” level of $72,000.

The "Max Pain Theory"

The “max pain” theory suggests that asset prices tend to gravitate toward the strike level. This is where options buyers would suffer the greatest losses at expiry, benefiting options writers who sold those contracts.

For the June quarterly expiry, that level sits at $72,000, far above Bitcoin’s current trading range near $61,000.

The divergence has reignited debate over whether max pain levels have meaningful influence on crypto markets.

The quarterly settlement on crypto derivatives exchange Deribit is one of the largest options expiries of the year. Around $10.2 billion in contracts are set to expire Friday, June 26.

Ahead of the expiry, Bitcoin could face added pressure as many expiring options are bullish positions while prices continue to decline. The expiry accounts for roughly 37% of open interest, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.83, suggesting bullish bets still outweigh bearish ones, Bloomberg reported.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $61,000, down approximately 4% over the past seven days.

Analysts Question The Narrative

According to market participants reported by CoinDesk, recent options expiries have failed to produce the price-pinning behavior often associated with the theory.

Crypto traders frequently cited max pain levels during the 2020–2021 bull market after Bitcoin appeared to move toward those levels ahead of major monthly and quarterly settlements.

However, options specialists have long argued that the relationship is largely overstated.

Tony Stewart, founder of Pelion Capital, has previously maintained that max pain carries limited explanatory power in crypto markets.

Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at market maker Wintermute, echoed that view.

“Despite it being a compelling narrative, recent option expiries haven’t really mechanically pinned down prices in the way people expect them to do,” De Maere said.

Volatility Could Still Increase

While Bitcoin’s price action appears to challenge the max pain theory, analysts note that large expiries remain important liquidity events.

As billions of dollars’ worth of contracts either expire or get rolled into future maturities, positioning adjustments can create short-term volatility across spot and derivatives markets.

Deribit has described the June expiry as one of the year’s most significant options events, with traders closely watching for shifts in open interest, hedging activity and liquidity conditions following settlement.

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