Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest (NYSE:ARKK) backed prediction market platform Kalshi at a $22 billion valuation in early May. Less than two months later, that position may already be worth nearly twice as much.

The Financial Times reported Wednesday that Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a roughly $40 billion valuation, citing people familiar with the matter.

The round could close as soon as the third quarter, according to the report. Kalshi declined to comment.

World Cup Volume Powers Valuation Surge

Kalshi was valued at just $5 billion in October 2025 and $11 billion in December, before its $1 billion Series F closed at $22 billion in May. That round was led by Coatue, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), IVP, Paradigm and ARK.

The platform booked $21.1 billion in June trading volume so far, supercharged by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while rival Polymarket and its US affiliate combined for about $9.7 billion.

Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated status has also opened the door to institutional block trades and algorithmic flow that Polymarket’s offshore structure struggles to capture.

Polymarket was reportedly in talks to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation in April, less than half what Kalshi is targeting.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC this morning that Kalshi’s “regulatory first” approach is the differentiator, citing strict KYC, market surveillance, and proactive trading bans on members of Congress.

Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) introduced a bipartisan bill Thursday to ban senior government officials from trading stocks or betting on prediction markets, echoing Mansour’s stance.

Political Index And Meta Threat

Mansour also rolled out a new product Thursday: the Kalshi Political Index.

It scores the balance of power in Washington as a single number, blending who holds power today across the presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court with prediction market prices on who will hold it next.

The index just flipped Republican for the first time, which Mansour pinned on the Iran conflict fading and Virginia’s redistricting fight.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is reportedly developing a competing prediction market app called Arena, according to a New York Times report this week.

Kalshi sued Illinois in federal court Wednesday over a new 15% tax on sports prediction market receipts. The CFTC and Trump administration are backing the company.

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Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.