Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) stock fell nearly 2% in Friday’s premarket session as investors pulled back from large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks. The decline came as broader market sentiment weakened, with Nasdaq futures down 1.33% and S&P 500 futures off 0.69%.

The decline appears to reflect broad market weakness rather than company-specific news. Softer index futures prompted investors to reduce exposure to high-growth technology stocks, leading to profit-taking across semiconductor names following their strong gains in recent months.

AI Spending Keeps Taiwan Semiconductor Ahead While Intel Foundry Gains Traction

Separately, Counterpoint Research said on Friday the global Foundry 2.0 market is benefiting from sustained artificial intelligence demand, with Taiwan Semiconductor expected to remain one of the biggest winners as AI investments continue through 2026.

The research firm said Taiwan Semiconductor’s first-quarter revenue surged 41% year over year and forecast full-year 2026 revenue growth of about 36%, driven by strong demand for AI GPUs, AI ASICs and advanced packaging.

Senior Analyst William Li said the current AI cycle represents a “broader structural transformation” for the semiconductor industry rather than a typical cyclical recovery, citing unprecedented capacity reallocations, pricing changes, and persistent CoWoS packaging constraints.

Counterpoint also sees opportunities emerging for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) Foundry and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC:SSNLF) Foundry as demand for advanced-node manufacturing and packaging tightens.

The firm said growing TPU and ASIC demand could create additional foundry opportunities, while potential design wins, including Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) future M-series chips on Intel’s 18A process, could improve confidence in Intel’s foundry business.

“Growing TPU and ASIC demand could further tighten leading-edge capacity, creating opportunities for Intel Foundry and Samsung Foundry, with Apple M-series chip on Intel Foundry as a potential catalyst,” the research firm said.

The firm added that advanced packaging has become a key bottleneck in AI deployment. Associate Director Brady Wang said outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing providers, including ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE:ASX) and Amkor Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:AMKR), are benefiting from stronger demand visibility and aggressive capacity expansion as AI workloads become more packaging-intensive.

Technical Analysis

Despite Friday’s pullback, TSM remains in a long-term uptrend. The stock continues to trade above its 50-day simple moving average of $411.50, its 100-day SMA of $381.83, and its 200-day SMA of $339.26. The 20-day SMA also remains above the 50-day SMA, while the 50-day SMA stays above the 200-day SMA, signaling a bullish long-term trend.

In the near term, however, momentum has cooled. TSM is trading about 1.5% below its 20-day SMA of $433.61 after retreating from its June peak and 52-week high. That suggests the stock is consolidating rather than extending its rally.

The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 52.43, indicating neutral momentum. A reading near 50 typically signals a balanced market where buyers and sellers remain evenly matched.

Key resistance sits near $450. A move above that level could revive bullish momentum. On the downside, support is around $405.50, just below the 50-day moving average. A break below that level could weaken the intermediate-term trend.

Earnings And Analyst Outlook

TSM is expected to report second-quarter results on July 16.

Wall Street expects earnings of $3.77 per share, up from $2.47 a year earlier, on revenue of $39.76 billion, compared with $30.07 billion in the prior-year quarter.

The stock trades at about 37.5 times earnings, reflecting its premium valuation.

Analysts remain broadly bullish. The consensus rating is Buy, with an average price forecast of $489.17. Recent analyst actions include:

  • Bank of America Securities reiterated Buy and raised its price forecast to $590 on June 24.
  • Susquehanna maintained a Positive rating and lifted its price forecast to $575 on June 22.
  • Barclays reiterated Overweight with a $470 price forecast on April 22.

Taiwan Semiconductor Benzinga Edge Rankings

According to Benzinga Edge, TSM scores highly for Momentum (91.98), Growth (92.65), and Quality (97.54), while its Value score remains weak at 22.28 because of its premium valuation.

The combination suggests investors continue to reward the company’s strong earnings profile and AI-driven growth prospects, although valuation remains a key consideration.

ETF Exposure

TSM is a major holding in several exchange-traded funds, including:

  • Lazard Emerging Markets Opportunities ETF (NYSE:EMKT): 7.48% weighting
  • Harbor International Compounders ETF (NYSE:OSEA): 7.10% weighting
  • Pacific NoS Global EM Equity Active ETF (NASDAQ:GEME): 9.98% weighting

Large inflows or outflows in these funds can create additional buying or selling pressure for TSM shares.

Taiwan Semiconductor Price Action

TSM Stock Price Activity: Taiwan Semiconductor shares were down 1.61% at $428.00 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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