U.S. equity futures are pointing to a green start for the trading week, buoyed by signs of stabilization in the Middle East and a temporary pause in direct military hostilities. Major earnings expected this week include Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE), Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:STZ), and General Mills Inc. (NYSE:GIS).

Reflecting this cautious optimism, the Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning heavily bullish for Monday morning. The “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on June 29?” betting contract currently shows a strong 86% chance of an “Up” open, representing a major resurgence in confidence from Friday’s tech-driven slump.

June 29 Polymarket Odds.

Why That Number Matters

Late Sunday, the Donald Trump administration announced that both the U.S. and Iran will “stand down for now,” allowing commercial vessels to once again move freely through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor.

Furthermore, technical implementation talks regarding the initial peace memorandum remain “on track,” with a high-level diplomatic summit officially scheduled for Tuesday in Doha, Qatar. This geopolitical breather is breathing life back into index futures ahead of the opening bell:

  • Futures Gain Ground: S&P 500 futures are up 0.53%. Tech-focused Nasdaq 100 futures have advanced 0.49%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lead by 0.27%.
  • Crude Ticks Upward: Relieved that a full-scale disruption has been averted for now, energy markets saw modest short-covering. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 1.14% to $70.02 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude ticked up 0.88% to $73.24 per barrel.
  • Global Mixed Bag: Despite the positive Western overnight tape, Asian markets traded lower as they digested the tail end of last week’s global tech rotation, with South Korea’s KOSPI down 2.20% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.14%.

The Bull And Bear Case

While futures traders cheer the Doha summit, market strategists at Yardeni Research apply the contrarian maxim, “Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets.” They note that the market correctly bottomed during the conflict in March before rallying to a June 2 peak on optimism about peace. However, following a broad “June Swoon” despite falling oil prices, Ed Yardeni highlights a shifting global landscape:

  • Global Outperformance: The multi-year trend of U.S. equities outpacing international and emerging markets has effectively stalled since early 2025.
  • Resilient Fundamentals: While U.S. mega-caps face margin pressure from expensive AI buildouts, the broader global economy remains robust. Forward revenues for the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) hit a record high last week, signaling strong worldwide corporate demand.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The Friday, June 26 Polymarket contract resolved “Down” as structural tech rotation and margin concerns plagued the indices. Despite blockbuster earnings out of Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), massive individual point drops from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT)dragged the benchmark index down at the open, crushing the 40% “Up” shares down to 15% at the opening bell with a resolution on a final volume of $42,883.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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