Cryptocurrency exchange Huobi rated Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and real-world assets Overweight for Q3 in its quarterly HTX Research report, arguing that Q3 rewards liquidity and cash flow over narrative.

Q2 Was A Liquidity Repricing, Not A Cycle Breakdown

HTX traced the sell-off in the second quarter to one chain reaction: the energy shock caused by the Iran war pushed inflation expectations higher, the Fed turned more hawkish, the dollar strengthened, and crypto got repriced alongside every other risk asset. 

BTC fell from roughly $82,000 to $59,000, a 24% peak-to-trough drop, as spot ETFs swung from $1.97 billion in April inflows to nearly $4.9 billion in combined May-June outflows.

Tokenized real-world assets excluding stablecoins grew 9.5% to $32.28 billion over the same quarter, with on-chain finance expanding even as prices fell sharply.

BTC Is The Core Position, But The Dollar Is The Key Risk

HTX called BTC the clearest institutional entry point in crypto, now trading as a global dollar liquidity proxy rather than a crypto-native asset. 

Q3’s direction depends on four things: ETF flows turning positive, the dollar peaking, Treasury financing not draining liquidity, and corporate treasury windows reopening. 

If the dollar stays strong and outflows persist, BTC stays range-bound regardless of sentiment.

ETH Needs Fee Revenue And CLARITY Before It Can Outperform

ETH/BTC fell 13.9% in Q2 as Layer-2 scaling reduced revenue, stablecoin activity migrated to Tron (CRYPTO: TRX) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), and staking yield near 1.42% couldn’t compete with Treasury rates. 

HTX rated ETH Neutral / Tactical Long, saying a recovery needs higher fees, renewed ETF inflows, and CLARITY Act progress. 

If regulation advances, ETH could outperform BTC because its regulatory discount is larger.

RWA Grows Regardless Of Sentiment

HTX rated real-world-assets Overweight with high confidence as the one sector that doesn’t need a bull market. 

Tokenized Treasuries grew from $13.65 billion to $15.04 billion in Q2, with Circle (NYSE:CRCL) USYC crossing $3.07 billion to overtake BlackRock’s (NYSE:BLK) BUIDL at $2.37 billion. Meanwhile, Ondo USDY hit $2.15 billion, up 63% over 90 days.

Three Scenarios For Q3

HTX put 60% odds on a base case where the Fed stays hawkish and BTC holds but stays range-bound. 

The 25% bull case needs energy prices falling and CLARITY passing, which pushes ETH and DeFi to outperform. 

The 15% bear case sees oil rising again and CLARITY stalling, making cash and stablecoins the only defense.

Long-tail altcoins stay Underweight until stablecoin supply grows $10 billion in 30 days, ETH/BTC stabilizes above 0.030, and Bitcoin dominance falls while total market cap rises simultaneously.

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