Everyone is debating whether consumers will pay more for the next iPhone. But JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee thinks investors may be looking in the wrong place. While Wall Street’s attention has shifted to Apple’s expected hardware price increases and the upcoming iPhone 18 cycle, the bank believes the company’s most compelling AI opportunity could be hiding in a product that rarely dominates Apple headlines: the Mac.
The AI Winner Investors May Be Overlooking
The centerpiece of JPMorgan’s thesis isn’t simply that Macs will continue growing—it’s why.
“Demand for Macs is likely to prove the least elastic,” Chatterjee wrote, pointing to Apple’s expanding lineup, broader addressable market and what he called “Edge AI-led demand.”
Unlike traditional PC refresh cycles, the bank believes the next wave of upgrades will be driven by increasingly demanding on-device AI applications running on Apple silicon.
Those “capability-driven” purchases, Chatterjee argues, are “far less price-sensitive than commodity refresh demand,” giving Apple greater pricing power even as component costs rise.
Growing While the PC Market Shrinks
The backdrop makes JPMorgan’s outlook even more notable.
The bank points to industry forecasts showing the broader PC market is expected to contract this year as higher memory costs push device prices higher. Yet Apple is expected to continue taking share.
According to Chatterjee, Macs have been “side-stepping” the broader PC market’s price elasticity through two structural advantages: a wider range of price points and accelerating demand for AI-capable computers. Gartner expects AI PCs to account for roughly 46% of the market next year, rising to about 70% by 2027, trends JPMorgan believes should continue benefiting Apple’s Mac lineup.
That combination leads the bank to forecast double-digit Mac revenue growth despite higher prices—a sharp contrast to much of the broader PC industry.
Not Every Apple Product Looks the Same
JPMorgan’s outlook isn’t equally bullish across Apple’s hardware portfolio.
The bank expects the iPad to be “the most price-sensitive” of Apple’s major product lines, while base-model iPhones should also see more demand pressure than premium devices. Macs, meanwhile, stand apart because AI functionality is creating new reasons to upgrade beyond routine replacement cycles.
That distinction also helps explain why JPMorgan left its longer-term earnings outlook largely intact despite assuming steeper hardware price increases. While lower-cost products may experience some volume pressure, stronger pricing and resilient demand for Macs and premium iPhones should leave Apple with “much more favorable” revenue and earnings outcomes than many investors currently expect.
The Bigger Picture
For years, Apple’s investment story has revolved around the iPhone.
JPMorgan’s latest research suggests the company’s next AI narrative may be unfolding elsewhere. As investors debate iPhone pricing and the foldable cycle, Apple’s quieter Mac business could become one of its biggest AI beneficiaries—driven not just by new hardware, but by “Edge AI-led demand” that may prove far more durable than the market expects.
Mac Mini-Photo by Wachiwit via Shutterstock
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