Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell on Donald Trump’s Iran ceasefire comments Wednesday, but analyst Benjamin Cowen argues the four-year cycle points to a counter-trend rally through July before a final drop later this year.

Trump’s Iran Comment Hit Bitcoin Mid-Recovery

Bitcoin was up 6% month-to-date and had just broken an eight-week ETF outflow streak with three consecutive days of inflows totaling $487 million before Wednesday’s headlines.

Trump declared the Iran ceasefire “over” at a NATO summit after US Central Command struck more than 60 Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats, with Iran retaliating against Kuwait and Bahrain. 

The three-day inflow streak, was the first since May 4-6 and had broken an outflow run that drained more than $8.6 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs over eight weeks.

History Says July Bounces, Even In Bear Markets

Cowen pointed to the two closest historical parallels: June 2018 and June 2022, both of which were red months for Bitcoin, just like June 2026. 

In both cases, July produced a counter-trend rally. Bitcoin gained roughly 38% in July 2018 and 19% to 20% in July 2022. On average across its full history, Bitcoin gains around 9% in July.

The pattern Cowen describes is a brief window of strength in July, followed by August and September giving those gains back, and then the final market cycle bottom arriving in the third or fourth quarter. 

In 2018, the rally topped near the 200-day moving average. In 2022, the same thing. 

The 200-day moving average currently sits near $74,000 but is declining rapidly, and Cowen estimated it will reach roughly $70,000 by mid-August.

The Four-Year Cycle Says This Is A Counter-Trend Rally, Not A New Bull Run

Cowen’s base case is that Bitcoin stays weak overall through the midterm year but produces tradeable rallies within that weakness. 

He noted Bitcoin rallied off $57,000 in June 2026, mirroring the $5,700 June 2018 low almost exactly in percentage terms from peak.

He warned against chasing the rally too aggressively, pointing out that in 2022 and 2018, all July gains were eventually given back in August and September before the actual cycle bottom. 

His preferred approach for midterm years is dollar-cost averaging through the second half rather than trying to time the exact low, which he said has historically produced better outcomes than reacting to each counter-trend move.

Image: Shutterstock