Evercore ISI’s latest "beaten‑down beat and raisers" call fits squarely into a broader thesis they’ve been building: earnings strength is still powerful enough to flatten the "wall of worry” and extend the bull market, even if leadership rotates.
- NVDA stock is moving. See the chart and price action here.
Evercore analyst Julian Emanuel’s team is arguing that Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) sit in a sweet spot of depressed sentiment, elevated short interest and still‑intact fundamentals heading into second‑quarter prints.
Nvidia has lagged the hottest memory and AI infrastructure trades despite double‑digit year‑to‑date gains, while Alphabet has been penalized alongside other hyperscalers as investors balk at heavy AI capex and rising debt issuance.
Netflix is digesting the fallout from its failed Warner Bros Discovery pursuit, trading more than 40% below recent highs, and Booking has been hit by geopolitics that clipped travel demand and knocked the stock by over 20%.
The Bet is on Earnings, Not Charts
The contrarian bet rests on the earnings backdrop more than the price charts. Consensus is looking for another quarter of more than 20% S&P 500 earnings growth, which would mark a second straight period of unusually strong profit expansion, led again by technology and energy.
FactSet and other trackers note that beat rates and magnitude of surprises remain above pre‑pandemic norms, even as investors worry that fewer companies will clear the bar this time.
Evercore has responded by lifting its S&P 500 2026 EPS estimate by more than 6% and reaffirming a 7,750 year‑end target, with upside scenarios tied to ongoing AI investment and resilient consumer demand.
Emanuel has been vocal that this earnings season could "quell a rising wall of worry," particularly if banks and other early reporters confirm that profitability is running ahead of cautious expectations.
The Nvidia‑Alphabet‑Netflix‑Booking basket is a direct expression of Evercore’s core view: in a market obsessed with AI bubbles, geopolitical risk and Fed policy, the next leg higher is still most likely to be driven by old‑fashioned earnings beats from unfashionable, fundamentally solid giants.
Photo: iQoncept / Shutterstock
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