Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) price action in 2026 has closely mirrored the 2018 bear market roadmap, with crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen projecting a market bottom by October.

Why BTC Follows the 2018 Roadmap

In a podcast on July 14, Cowen said Bitcoin’s current bear market continues to closely resemble the 2018 cycle from a structural standpoint, even as macro conditions more closely resemble the 2019-2020 period.

Cowen pointed to several similarities between the two cycles, including a February low, a higher low in late March or early April, a lower high in May and a sweep of the February lows in late June or early July.

He added that the current market reflects 2018 from a four-year cycle perspective and 2019 from a business cycle perspective.

During these phases, restrictive monetary conditions prevented the traditional rotation into higher-risk crypto assets.

Price Action: Bitcoin has surged over 3% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin To Bottom By October?

While Cowen expects the 2018 fractal to eventually diverge, he believes the break will likely come because Bitcoin bottoms earlier than December, with late September to early October remaining his base case for a cycle low.

The analyst expects BTC could rally toward the bear market resistance band through late July before giving back those gains during August, like previous bear market rallies in 2018 and 2022.

Cowen warned investors not to become overly bearish or obsess over perfectly timing the bottom. He argues that dollar-cost averaging during bear markets has historically been more effective than waiting for the exact low.

He also cautioned that while Bitcoin may stabilize, altcoins could continue underperforming, noting that during the 2018 cycle, BTC held key support while the broader altcoin market continued to bleed lower.

Despite expecting one more downside move to fully reset on-chain indicators, Cowen said Bitcoin remains in a time-based capitulation phase.

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