Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call at 5 p.m. ET.
Polymarket gives the company a 95% chance of beating estimates, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Lip-Bu Tan and his team will say.
Analysts expect the chipmaker to report quarterly earnings of 22 cents per share, versus a loss of 10 cents in the year-ago period, on revenue of about $14.4 billion.
• Intel stock is facing resistance. What’s pulling INTC shares down?
What Kalshi Predicts Tan Will Say
“Foundry” and “Panther Lake / 18A” both sit at 99%. The Foundry is Intel’s business of making chips for other companies, the centerpiece of its turnaround, though external customers generated just $174 million of its $5.4 billion first-quarter revenue and the unit lost $2.4 billion. Panther Lake is the first laptop chip built on 18A, the advanced manufacturing process the whole plan rests on.
“Mobileye” trades at 81%. Intel paid about $15 billion in 2017 for the Israeli driver-assistance firm and still owns roughly 80% of it, but in the first quarter it wrote down some of that bet, a charge that turned an otherwise profitable quarter into a $3.7 billion reported loss. Analysts may press on whether Intel sells the rest.
“Nvidia” sits at 80%. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) put $5 billion into Intel last year and the two are co-developing chips.
“Security” sits at 68% after cybersecurity firm Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) committed a chip to Intel’s factories this week, reportedly the first named customer win under Tan. The stock jumped more than 8%, though the chip runs on an older Intel process, leaving 18A still without a named outside customer.
What Kalshi Predicts Tan Will Skip
“Apple” trades at just 22%. A reported preliminary deal to build Apple chips on 18A sent the stock up 19% in May, but neither company has confirmed it, and Intel says some contracts stay confidential at the client’s request.
“Trump” sits at 10%. The president engineered the government’s roughly 10% stake in Intel and has publicly touted the turnaround, yet traders price his name as a near-certain omission. “Government” itself trades at 59%.
“Dividend” sits at 8%. Intel suspended its payout in 2024, and even with profitability returning, traders see almost no chance management raises the subject.
Reading the Board
The beat is priced in; the reaction is not. Options traders are pricing in a move of about 12.5% in either direction, according to TipRanks, enormous for a company worth half a trillion dollars.
Data center revenue needs to hit about $5.56 billion to match the growth management signaled, and gross margin, guided to 39%, will show whether the costly 18A ramp is paying off.
Intel said new Foundry customers would show up in the second half of 2026. It’s now the second half of 2026. Tonight, Tan either delivers a name or explains why not.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Image: Shutterstock
Login to comment