Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has outperformed the semiconductor sector by roughly 25% this month, marking one of its strongest relative performances against chip stocks in years.

Notable Outperformance Against SOXX

In a CNBC interview on Thursday, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, said Bitcoin remains well below its previous highs, but improving relative strength, fiscal concerns in Europe and reduced enthusiasm around parts of the AI trade are creating a more constructive setup.

Sigel added that Bitcoin entered the year with a bearish outlook because it appeared to be following its long-standing four-year market cycle. He added that with a 50% fall, it has become difficult not to turn more bullish at current levels.

Bitcoin’s recent performance against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is particularly notable, Sigel said.

He pointed to the relationship between Bitcoin and the performance of software stocks relative to semiconductor companies, which he said has tracked closely over the past nine months.

Software stocks now appear to have bottomed against semiconductors, suggesting investors are beginning to distinguish between companies that benefited from speculative AI enthusiasm and those capable of surviving over the long term.

"The market is starting to sort out who are the actual survivors and winners in software—who’s going to be here in 10 years," Sigel said.

He argued that Bitcoin belongs in that discussion because it is ultimately open-source software with a highly predictable long-term design.

"As some of the froth comes out of semis and the AI trade, Bitcoin can be one of those software survivors that emerges," Sigel said.

Bitcoin Could Return To $100,000 Within A Year

When asked when Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000, Sigel said the cryptocurrency could reach that level within one year.

A survey cited during the interview showed only 16% of respondents expected Bitcoin to cross $100,000 before January.

Sigel said that expectation appeared too pessimistic.

"I think we can be back there easily within one year," he said.

He cautioned that Bitcoin remains a cyclical asset without a buyer of last resort, meaning it rarely trades sideways for prolonged periods.

"It doesn’t go flat. It goes up or it goes down," Sigel said.

Image: Shutterstock