Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 9% in July, but crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said the gains are likely temporary and August and September could erase them, just as they did in 2018 and 2022.
Why Cowen Says Bitcoin Is Stuck Between Two Key Levels
Cowen said in a youtube video that Bitcoin is ping-ponging between the bear market resistance band above and the 200-week moving average below, with neither level breaking convincingly in either direction.
Every approach to the resistance band has produced a rejection, and every dip toward the 200-week moving average has produced a bounce.
He said this setup mirrors 2018 almost exactly. Both years saw a low in February, a retest of that low in late June, and then a July countertrend rally.
The key difference is volatility — in 2018 the range was about 40% wide, while in 2026 it is only about 20%, making this a quieter, slower version of the same pattern.
What History Says About July Rallies in Midterm Years
Cowen tracked Bitcoin’s July returns across every midterm year and found the pattern consistent.
In 2022, Bitcoin gained 20% in July before August and September wiped out those gains.
In 2018, it gained nearly 40% in July before the same thing happened. Even where July was slightly negative, like 2014, the weakness still arrived in the months that followed.
He said the window for Bitcoin to stay strong is likely closing within two to four weeks, with August and September historically the months where the summer bounce gives way to renewed selling pressure.
What Needs to Happen for the Pattern to Break
Cowen said the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) is the key variable Bitcoin is waiting on. In 2018 and 2022, stocks topped in August or September and then dropped 10% to 20%, pulling Bitcoin down with them and forming the cycle low.
He said that stock market correction has not happened yet, which is partly why Bitcoin has not broken down either.
His base case is that the S&P 500 tops in August or September, drops, Bitcoin follows, and the market cycle bottom forms from that level.
If Bitcoin has not broken down by the end of the year, he said he would treat that as time-based capitulation and shift his view toward a new bull market beginning.
He put the theoretical cycle low around late November, noting that is why the ITC conference he is hosting is scheduled for that window.
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