Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is one of the Magnificent Seven stocks reporting financial results this week with fourth-quarter financial results coming on Wednesday after market close.
Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.
Microsoft Q4 Earnings Estimates
Analysts are expecting the company to report revenue of $87.61 billion and earnings per share of $4.23, up from $76.44 billion and $3.65 year-over-year, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 13 straight quarters and for earnings per share in 15 straight quarters.
What Analysts Are Saying
Citizens analyst Patrick Walravens says a recent letter on open weights and AI leadership in America could be drawing battle lines in the AI sector.
The analyst maintains a Market Outperform rating and $550 price target on the stock ahead of earnings.
"While investors have concerns about competition from the frontier models, seat-based licenses, and the extent of capital expenditure in the next year, we continue to like the stock for several reasons," Walravens said.
The analyst said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has a differentiated vision of AI sovereignty, the company is building an end-to-end AI tech stack and the company’s total addressable market could be $5.1 trillion by 2030.
"Microsoft continues to have a very attractive financial profile, with revenue growth accelerating to 17% in FY26, from 15% in FY25."
The analyst said they like the "steady leadership" of Nadella.
Walravens says the stock is justified at a premium to its peer group with its growth, leadership team and vision on AI sovereignty.
Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci sees Microsoft meeting estimates for the fourth quarter, but sees some risk with the company’s Windows business.
"Most of the upside we expect for both upcoming quarters resides in Productivity and Business Processes and Intelligent Cloud," DiFucci said.
The analyst maintained a Buy rating and price target of $586 ahead of earnings.
While Windows could disappoint, DiFucci highlights the growth of the company’s Azure segment, estimating quarter growth of 39% to 40% year-over-year.
Key Items to Watch
Microsoft posted a double beat in the third quarter with overall revenue growth of 18% year-over-year. Intelligent Cloud was the big segment in the quarter with growth of 30% year-over-year. Productivity and Business Processes growth was 17% in the third quarter and the segment was the top revenue driver.
The company said overall Microsoft Cloud revenue was up 29% year-over-year in the third quarter with Azure and other cloud services revenue up 40% year-over-year in the quarter.
Microsoft also highlighted its AI business hitting an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion.
Analysts and investors will be watching for cloud revenue and the AI annual revenue run rate. The company’s capex will also be one of the top-watched figures from the quarterly results.
One of four Magnificent Seven stocks reporting this week, Microsoft’s financial results could have a big impact on several market indexes and sector ETFs.
The company is the third-largest holding in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) at 4.5% of assets.
In the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), Microsoft is the fifth largest holding at 4.4% of assets.
In the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), Microsoft is the fourth largest holding at 4.7% of assets.
Overall, Microsoft is a top five holding across the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 ETFs, making it one of the most important reports of the week.
Microsoft Stock Price Action
Microsoft stock is up 2.40% to $398.43 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $349.20 to $555.45. Microsoft stock is down 16.2% year-to-date in 2026.
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