OpenAI may be pushing back its public debut as it weighs whether market conditions can support its reported goal of a $1 trillion valuation. The company confidentially filed draft IPO paperwork with U.S. regulators last month, but subsequent reports suggest it could wait until 2027 before going public.
A later IPO would give the ChatGPT owner more time to expand revenue and strengthen its case for a premium valuation before entering the public markets. It would also come as investors increasingly scrutinize the long-term returns on heavy AI spending across the technology sector.
The timing debate also reflects a broader internal tension at OpenAI.
According to PitchBook, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar has favored waiting until 2027, while CEO Sam Altman has been preparing for a possible September 2026 listing. The research firm said market activity around SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) recent public debut helped reinforce concerns about whether investors would continue supporting large technology listings after an initial surge.
PitchBook noted that SpaceX shares fell roughly one-third from their post-listing highs, viewing the pullback as a warning sign that retail enthusiasm may not translate into sustained demand for newly public companies with massive valuations.
The analysts noted that OpenAI’s decision on timing effectively acts as a pricing signal: management must choose between going public sooner at a potentially discounted valuation or waiting longer in hopes of reaching the $1 trillion mark. While OpenAI has not committed to a specific IPO date, the confidential filing allows the company to maintain flexibility if market conditions improve.
Beyond valuation concerns, PitchBook pointed to several strategic reasons for delaying a listing. A fall IPO prospectus would highlight OpenAI’s 2025 losses at the same time rival Anthropic has indicated it expects to reach its first operating profit.
Quality Matters
Despite OpenAI’s higher valuation (private market valuations of $852 billion), PitchBook ($965 billion) suggested Anthropic currently commands a more attractive valuation relative to its business quality score.
OpenAI currently has an AI Business Quality score of 4.53, well below Anthropic’s 8.20. Even though Anthropic carries a higher private valuation, the firm argued it appears less expensive relative to business quality than OpenAI.
This translates to roughly $188 billion of valuation per AIBQ point for OpenAI versus about $118 billion for Anthropic.
The Cost Of Waiting Could Be Substantial
OpenAI projects operating cash burn will reach $63 billion in 2027, with free cash flow bottoming near negative $110 billion in 2028 after accounting for additional infrastructure investments.
Delaying an IPO until 2027 would require OpenAI to fund another year of rapid expansion as a private company, potentially through additional equity raises, dilution or debt financing.
Meanwhile, Anthropic could reshape the competitive landscape by reaching the public markets first. PitchBook said the company could target an October IPO following its confidential filing on June 1. A successful debut would give investors a public benchmark for valuing AI companies before OpenAI prices its own shares.
PitchBook said investors should watch for OpenAI to convert its confidential filing into a public S-1, the pricing of its employee tender offer, SpaceX’s Aug. 6 earnings and lockup timeline, and whether Anthropic proceeds with an October IPO.
The firm said its outlook would change if OpenAI moves ahead with a 2026 IPO or if its public S-1 shows investors are willing to support a $1 trillion valuation sooner than expected.
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