Seagate Technology Holdings (NASDAQ:STX) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after Tuesday’s closing bell, and the stock has already done something its own guidance never promised: it’s priced in a lot more good news than management has actually put on paper.
- STX stock is moving ahead of earnings. See the chart and price action here.
Back in April, Seagate guided Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $4.80 to $5.20 and revenue of $3.35 billion to $3.55 billion, with a $3.45 billion midpoint. Wall Street’s consensus has crept slightly above that, calling for roughly $5.04 EPS on $3.48 billion in revenue.
Small gap on paper — except the stock hasn’t traded like the gap is small.
Seagate shares have gone parabolic in 2026, surging from roughly $275 in January to well above $900 as recently as last week.
That’s the more striking problem: Seagate’s own consensus analyst price target — $788 across 20 analysts by Benzinga’s tally — sits below where the stock has been trading, meaning the Street’s own targets have been left in the dust by the rally.
Wall Street’s STX Price Targets
Not every desk is chasing it blindly. Susquehanna reiterated a Neutral rating on July 8 even after lifting its target to $775, while Citigroup has pushed its target as high as $1,240 and Wells Fargo upgraded to Overweight at $1,100 — a wide analyst spread that signals real disagreement over how much further this goes.
The bull case is intact on paper: hyperscalers are locking up nearline HDD capacity for AI workloads, and CEO Dave Mosley has said capacity is essentially committed through 2027, with management lifting its long-term annual revenue growth target to at least 20%.
Seagate has also beaten EPS estimates for four straight quarters, according to Benzinga Pro data. But that track record is exactly why Tuesday’s report is dicey: a stock trading near 80x trailing earnings, above its own analyst price targets, doesn’t get rewarded for merely hitting numbers it already guided to.
With consensus sitting slightly above management’s own midpoint, even a clean beat may not be beat enough to satisfy a market that’s already sprinted past the guidance it’s supposed to be trading on.
STX Stock Price Activity: Seagate stock was down 8.10% at $750.83 at the time of publication Tuesday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Over the past month, STX has declined about 15.1% versus a 0.6% rise in the S&P 500 and is up roughly 176% year-to-date compared to the index’s 8.1% gain.
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