The Senate has pushed the CLARITY Act to the back of the queue, spending its final pre-recess days on federal nominations and a Russia sanctions bill instead.
The crypto industry’s most important legislation is now unlikely to see floor time before next week.
That’s a problem, because the Senate breaks for recess on Aug. 8, and the bill still doesn’t have the votes.
The sanctions bill honors the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), whose funeral occupies the chamber Tuesday and Wednesday. President Donald Trump had urged senators to pass the crypto bill “in honor of” Graham, calling him “a big supporter,” though the South Carolina Republican sat on neither committee that drafted it.
Why McConnell’s Absence May Matter
The bill needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, was appointed to his seat, restoring Republicans to 53, meaning at least seven Democrats must cross over.
But Sen. Mitch McConnell has been absent since a June 14 fall, and the Capitol physician said Monday the 84-year-old is not yet cleared to leave his rehabilitation facility.
Polymarket traders give McConnell less than a 1% chance of voting by July 31, and a 31% chance he steps down before his term ends.
Because cloture counts all 100 seats, an absence functions like a no vote, likely raising the required Democratic crossovers to eight. Those Democrats are still pushing for stricter rules barring officials, including Trump, from profiting off digital assets.
BlackRock and Goldman Push, JPMorgan Pushes Back
The delay lands just as BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs and SoFi publicly endorsed the bill.
Goldman CEO David Solomon said the Act “is not perfect” but he is “very supportive” of moving it forward.
Not everyone agrees. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has reportedly clashed with Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) over stablecoin yield provisions. Coinbase has the most riding on passage.
The bill would shift most tokens from SEC oversight to the lighter-touch CFTC, lifting the legal cloud that has hung over the exchange for years.
Traders Head for the Exits
Polymarket’s contract on the bill becoming law this year traded at 82% in February. It now sits at 35%, near record lows.
Not all of the pain traces back to the Senate. More than $600 million was liquidated across crypto markets in 24 hours as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) slipped toward $63,400. Traders are bracing for Wednesday’s Fed decision, where a surprise rate hike remains on the table.
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