Morgan Stanley on Monday downgraded its Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) to a $38 target while TD Cowen rated the stock a Buy with a $82 target.

Why Morgan Stanley Says Sell?

Analyst James Faucette cut his price target to $38 from $106, citing USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) contraction exposing reserve income sensitivity and a shift toward lower-margin transaction revenue, according to a note cited by CNBC. 

He slashed USDC supply assumptions by roughly 33% for 2027 and 44% for 2028, putting his GAAP EPS estimates 3% and 20% below consensus.

Faucette said stablecoin activity remains overwhelmingly skewed toward crypto trading and transfers rather than real payments. 

He cited McKinsey data estimating roughly $35 trillion in adjusted stablecoin volume, of which only $390 billion represents identifiable payments, roughly 0.5% of total activity.

“While there are real and growing use cases in cross-border B2B and consumer remittances, they have not yet demonstrated the ability to create the durable balances or recurring transaction economics needed to offset pressure on Circle’s reserve-income model,” Faucette wrote.

He also flagged Open USD’s shared governance and reserve economics as raising the cost of defending USDC distribution, and called agentic payments “immaterial” with daily volume at just $41,900.

Why TD Cowen Says Buy?

Analyst Bryan Bergin initiated coverage with an $82 price target, implying 31% upside from Friday’s close. 

Moreover, he said the market underestimates Circle’s evolution into a platform player spanning payments, treasury, tokenized real-world assets, interoperability, and developer services.

“We see a compelling combination of attractive growth and diversification via USDC circulation, rapidly growing high-margin fee-based revenues, and Arc optionality,” Bergin wrote.

Of the 30 analysts covering Circle, 16 rate it a hold or sell, with the remaining 14 at buy or strong buy, according to LSEG data.

Where Does CRCL Stand Heading Into Earnings?

CRCL is down 5%, pressing directly onto the hard support line at $59.47 that has held since late June. 

Bollinger Bands are squeezing at the lower band of $58.75, with price sitting on both simultaneously. 

All four EMAs stack overhead and declining, with the stock buried under every major average.

Holding $59.47 post-earnings opens a relief bounce toward $65. Losing it puts $50 in play with no visible support in between.

Key levels for CRCL:

  • $65.22 — 20-day EMA, first resistance above
  • $59.47 — hard support line, must hold
  • $58.75 — Bollinger lower band; losing this opens $50

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