A signal that has appeared only three times in 15 years and landed on a major Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bottom each time is completing on August 31, according to a prominent analyst.
What is This Bitcoin Bottom Signal?
Analyst Oliver Velez laid out the case in his weekly Bitcoin Intelligence Report. The signal works by flipping the usual relationship — instead of measuring Bitcoin in dollars, it measures the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) in Bitcoin.
When that chart rises, Bitcoin is losing ground to stocks. When it falls, Bitcoin is winning.
The pattern that matters is three consecutive rising bars on a four-month chart, each one higher than the last.
That specific setup has only appeared three times in 15 years, and every single time it completed, Bitcoin was at or near a major cycle low.
How Has This Signal Performed Historically?
| Date Completed | Bitcoin Price | Distance From Cycle Low | Return 1 Year Later |
| January 2015 | $171 | Exact cycle low | +90% |
| December 2018 | $3,381 | Within 5.9% of cycle low | +94% |
| November 2022 | $16,197 | Exact cycle low | +156% |
Why Does August 31 Matter for Bitcoin?
A fourth sequence is now forming. The first bar closed in December, the second in April, and the third is live right now.
It has already made a higher high than the prior bar, so the pattern will complete no matter what happens next. The bar closes August 31.
Bitcoin’s price on that date adds a fourth entry to the list above. Right now that number sits near $65,000.
What Would Prove This Bitcoin Signal Wrong?
Velez lays out the failure condition clearly: If the next bar, covering September through December, closes green, it means Bitcoin kept losing ground to stocks past the exact point where the pattern has always turned around before.
That would mark the first time this signal has failed in 15 years. It’s a simple test too: just one bar, one color, and anyone can check it themselves once December 31 closes.
What Else Supports a Bitcoin Bottom Right Now?
Bitcoin closed last week at $65,050, up 3.6%, holding its 200-week moving average despite no Clarity Act vote and a major hardware wallet exploit hitting markets at the same time.
ETF inflows hit $865.3 million for the week, the strongest five sessions since June, with BlackRock’s IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) taking in 80% of the total.
Exchange balances sit at a seven-year low and long-term holder supply is at an all-time high. Every major institutional seller sold into the decline and price refused to break.
As Velez put it: the buyers did not rescue the market. The sellers simply ran out.
Image: Shutterstock
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