Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) is down 1.5% on Tuesday as analyst Ali Martinez flags three warning signals and Grayscale quietly withdrew its ADA ETF filing from the SEC.
What the Three Warning Signals Are
Ali Martinez laid out the case in a six-part X thread on Tuesday.
First, the number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA dropped from 2,370 to 2,340 since August 2, according to Santiment data, pointing to large holders distributing after the recent rally.
Second, that selling pressure triggered a death cross between ADA’s MVRV ratio and its 7-day moving average, a shift that points to weakening momentum.
Third, the Tom DeMark Sequential flashed a sell signal on ADA’s daily chart, which could signal a one to four candle pullback or the start of a new bearish countdown.
Ali Charts said if these signals confirm, ADA could drop toward $0.170, the channel’s mid-range support. A further breakdown puts $0.144 in play.
Why Grayscale’s Exit Adds Pressure
Grayscale withdrew its Cardano ETF registration from the SEC late Friday, according to CoinDesk, alongside filings for Polkadot (CRYPTO: DOT) and Hedera (CRYPTO: HBAR) ETFs.
The withdrawals were Grayscale’s own decision, not SEC rejections, submitted through three separate requests within four minutes of each other.
ADA is down more than 41% year to date and has endured a 70% drawdown since Grayscale’s original filing in February 2025.
The withdrawal removes a potential institutional catalyst that had been sitting in the pipeline for over a year.
What Is Still Working in ADA’s Favor?
Development on the network hasn’t slowed down despite the price weakness.
IOG reported an 85x performance improvement to Hydra, Cardano’s Layer 2 scaling solution, cutting the commitment time for 4,000 UTXOs from 2.13 seconds down to 25 milliseconds.
The broader macro backdrop is working against risk assets generally, though.
The 30-year Treasury bond yield hit 5.28% Monday, its highest level since 2007, according to LuckSide Crypto’s analysis, pulling capital away from crypto and other risk assets across the board.
ADA Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
ADA pulled back to $0.18819 Tuesday after failing to hold above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.19977, a textbook rejection at resistance following July’s breakout rally.
The Supertrend indicator remains green at $0.16821, and the 20-day EMA at $0.18391 sits just below price as immediate support, keeping July’s bullish structure technically intact for now.
Cardano Key Price Levels To Watch
| Level | Type | What It Means |
| $0.22 | Upside target | Next target if $0.188 holds on a daily close |
| $0.176 | Support | 0.382 Fibonacci, next level down if $0.188 breaks |
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