XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has struggled to regain momentum throughout the third quarter. As a result, it has fallen roughly 45% year to date as selling pressure, weak demand, and fading ETF inflows continue to weigh on the market.
The decline has pushed XRP’s market capitalization below $65 billion, leaving it ranked sixth among the largest cryptocurrencies.
More importantly, however, XRP is now testing a critical technical zone near $1.
If bulls fail to defend this level, the current correction could accelerate into a much deeper decline.
What’s Happening?
Outside the reasons mentioned above, the weekly XRP/USD chart shows why the $1 support is critical
On several occasions, XRP has failed to break above the descending resistance line shown below since July 14, 2025.
At the same time, the lower trendline has continued to provide support, creating the appearance of a falling-wedge formation. In most cases, that structure offers bulls a potential escape route.
A breakout above the upper trendline could signal that the prolonged downtrend is losing strength. However, there is little evidence yet that buyers have regained control.
Furthermore, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator remains negative, suggesting that bearish momentum continues to outweigh buying pressure.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) provides a slightly more encouraging signal. It has started recovering from oversold levels, suggesting that capital outflows may be slowing.
But it does not seem enough to confirm accumulation or a sustained trend reversal.
For bulls to strengthen the recovery case, XRP first needs to reclaim the $1.18 area.
A move above that resistance would provide the first meaningful sign that buyers are beginning to challenge the prevailing bearish structure.
Other Things Are Not Falling in Place
Besides that, trading activity across major exchanges is also increasing.
Upbit leads with approximately $6.23 million in XRP volume, followed by Binance at $5.06 million. However, exchange inflows provide a more cautious signal.
Upbit recorded roughly $1.95 million in XRP inflows, while Kraken registered approximately $1.16 million. Binance followed with about $600,000.
Higher exchange inflows can indicate that investors are moving tokens toward exchanges with the potential to sell. Yet, these figures remain relatively small compared with overall trading activity.
Thus, the data alone does not confirm large-scale distribution.
Instead, the relationship between price and exchange flows is increasingly becoming the more important signal.
If XRP falls while exchange inflows accelerate, it would suggest that selling pressure is intensifying.
Alternatively, if XRP holds its support or begins recovering while inflows decline, the setup would become more constructive and could point toward accumulation.
What Next for XRP?
The daily chart presents an even more immediate test. From the image below, XRP is pressing against the lower boundary of a descending triangle while trading around the $1 psychological level.
Momentum remains weak, with the Awesome Oscillator (AO) below zero and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.96.
That leaves bulls with little room for error. However, the first major level to watch is $0.98.
A daily close below $0.98 would confirm that the descending triangle is breaking down. If that happens, XRP could initially fall toward $0.80 before exposing the $0.60 area.
The descending triangle’s measured move points toward approximately $0.48. However, that should be viewed as a deeper downside target rather than the immediate base case.
The bearish thesis would begin to weaken if XRP reclaims the descending trendline and moves back above $1.15.
A daily close above $1.20 would provide stronger bullish confirmation and could lead to $1.35, where Fibonacci resistance becomes relevant.
If XRP can break above the $1.335 region, attention could then shift toward $1.54, corresponding with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already approaching oversold territory, so a relief bounce remains possible. But until XRP reclaims $1.20, any rebound should be treated as a recovery attempt rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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