3 Key Points
- Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) surrendered most of its post-Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) rally, consolidating between $1,850 and $1,880 as traders await Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report.
- Corporate treasury purchases from BitMine and SharpLink offset weakening ETF flows and negative sentiment around ongoing staking rewards debate.
- On-chain metrics show increased network activity, with declining long-term holder selling pressure supporting bullish longer-term sentiment despite the
Ethereum’s Post-NFP Rally Fades
Ethereum rallied to $1942 following last Friday’s softer-than-expected U.S. labor market report. Those gains gradually faded.
After surging as high as $1,942 on Coinbase on Aug. 7, ETH has since retraced, consolidating within the $1,850-$1,880 range before opening Wednesday’s session around $1,887.
The initial rally followed the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ surprise Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, missing Wall Street expectations for payroll growth of 80,000 to 95,000 jobs.
The weaker labor market immediately shifted expectations toward a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Following Friday’s release, the CME’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged rising to 55.9%, overtaking 44.1% odds of another hike.
Attention now shifts toward Wednesday’s CPI release, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to further influence expectations surrounding September’s Federal Reserve meeting.
According to Reuters’ survey of economists, headline inflation is expected to slow to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% in June, while core CPI is forecast to ease to 2.5%, potentially marking its lowest annual reading since March 2021.
Bitmine and Sharplink Treasury Purchases offsets $11.6M ETF Outflow
The softer inflation expectations, combined with Friday’s weak payroll report, have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave rates unchanged later this year, although traders have largely avoided piling in large long positions ahead of the CPI release.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $14.6 million in net outflows on Tuesday, ending a five-day buying streak that previously attracted roughly $230-$245 million in inflows during the week ending Aug. 7-10.
Corporate treasury demand, however, has continued providing support. Cumulative Ethereum treasury holdings hit 7.58 million ETH on Aug 11, a 1.1 million increase from 7.47 million recorded at the start of July, according to TheBlock. The latest uptick was driven by purchases from Bitmine and Sharplink.
In its weekly corporate update released on Aug. 10, BitMine Immersion Technologies disclosed that it acquired 7,391 ETH, valued at approximately $14 million, over the preceding week.
Meanwhile, SharpLink Gaming continued expanding its Ethereum treasury despite posting a headline $394.3 million second-quarter net loss.
SharpLink increased its treasury from 886,881 ETH at the end of June to 888,938 ETH by Aug. 3. The 2,057 ETH acquisition during that period brings Sharplink’s total ETH reserved to representing approximately $1.4 billion worth of Ether at Aug 2026 prices.
The reported loss was largely driven by $321 million in unrealized Ethereum revaluation losses and $76.1 million in liquid staking token impairments rather than operating weakness.
Operationally, the company reported revenue surged more than 1,500% year-over-year to $11.53 million, with approximately $11.2 million generated through Ethereum staking rewards
Quicknode CEO Weighs Robinhood Chain impact as Santiment Flags 5-Month Peak Ethereum Network Activity
Network fundamentals continue supporting Ethereum’s longer-term outlook. On Aug 10, Blockchain analytics platform Santiment flagged Ethereum Daily active addresses climbing to 989,500, the highest reading since March.
This depicts steady blockchain usage despite relatively flat prices after bulls failed to follow-through on the post-NFP rally last Friday.
Santiment cited expanding Ethereum settlement activity through Robinhood Chain, and increasing adoption of stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets and on-chain financial infrastructure as key factors supporting the Layer-1 network activity
Robinhood combines distribution, brokerage, identity, compliance, custody, asset issuance, and liquidity, according to Dmitry Shklovsky, Co-founder of Web3 infrastructure provider Quicknode.
When asked about the long-term impact of Robinhood’s Layer-2 chain, he said "if Ethereum-secured activity grows faster than value migrates away, Robinhood Chain strengthens Ethereum".
"I would measure net-new users and assets, blob demand, Layer 1 settlement frequency, ETH demand and burn, sequencer revenue retained versus paid to Ethereum, and cross-chain liquidity fragmentation", he added.
However, institutional investors remain cautious amid ongoing discussions surrounding Ethereum staking reward proposals that could reduce validator yields once staking participation exceeds the 50% threshold.
Several industry leaders, including Lido contributors, have argued that making staking rewards less predictable could weaken institutional adoption by reducing Ethereum’s appeal as a yield-generating asset.
Ethereum Price Forecast: Long-Term Holder Conviction Supports Bullish Bias as Polymarket Eyes $2,250 Rally
Technical indicators continue suggesting Ethereum’s broader uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation.
Eterereum’s 20-day moving average has climbed to $1,890 at publication on Aug 12 from from $1,660 on July 1 to reflecting sustained buying momentum over the last 50-days.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s 1-year Active Supply Percentage has declined from 37.4% to 35.9% over the same period.
This 1-year active supply metric measures the proportion of ETH moved within the past year. A falling reading while prices rise generally indicates long-term holders’ reluctance to sell ETH despite growing unrealized profits.
If CPI cools in line with expectations, Ethereum could resume its advance toward the psychological $2,000 level before challenging resistance around $2,250.
Prediction markets also lean predominantly bullish ahead of the CPI report. Polymarket currently assigns an 82% probability that Ethereum reaches $2,000 before year-end, while the odds of $2,250 have risen to 55%, as of midnight CET on Aug 12.
By comparison, markets assign only 44% odds that ETH retraced below $1,500 in 2026 despite accumulating over $2 million in wagers, compared to $31,309 and $14,250 staked on the aforementioned upside outcomes. More so, probabilities decline further to 21% for $1,250 and 13% for $1,000.
Although traders remain cautious ahead of CPI, Ethereum strengthening network activity following the Robinhood chain launch and long-term investors’ reluctance to sell suggest market participants currently favor higher price targets over a deeper corrective reversal.
However, with the US-Iran conflict still far from conclusive resolution, heavy wagers on the downside outcomes in Prediction markets reflect that traders remain well-hedged, in the event that surprise inflation data revives expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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