Bets are mounting on prediction markets that Elon Musk could merge Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) before 2028.
What’s Happening on Kalshi, Polymarket?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns a 55% chance that the two companies will officially combine by Dec. 31, 2027.
However, odds of a combination by the end of 2026 have cratered, from a high of 57% in May to 20% as of this writing.
Meanwhile, Kalshi said on X that the probability of the merger being finalized before 2028 stands at 65%. As of this writing, the odds have increased to 71%.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Is This the Merger the Market Has Been Waiting For?
Market chatter has grown louder around a possible combination involving two of Musk’s most influential companies.
During Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call last month, Musk was asked about the possibility.
The world’s richest person pointed to the companies’ growing collaboration but said an earnings call was not the appropriate forum to discuss the matter, adding that it "has to go through the appropriate process."
JPMorgan said in July that the conversation has become a lot more practical, viewing SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO as one of the biggest catalysts that could move a Tesla-SpaceX combination closer to reality.
Palantir Technologies Inc‘s (NASDAQ: PLTR) co-founder Joe Lonsdale said earlier this year that there are a lot of synergies between Musk’s companies, and they’d “definitely be collaborating.”
Musk has a history of merging and consolidating his companies. Earlier this year, SpaceX acquired artificial intelligence startup xAI in a massive all-stock deal. In 2025, he merged the social media platform X into xAI.
Price Action: SpaceX shares fell 0.25% in after-hours trading after closing 4.45% higher at $146.23 during Monday’s regular trading session, according to data from Benzinga Pro. Tesla shares closed 0.87% lower at $339.40.
The SPCX Stock exhibited a strong trend across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings.
Photo courtesy: IAB Studio on Shutterstock.com
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