California voters are narrowly backing a proposed one-time tax on certain taxpayers with assets over $1 billion, according to a new Berkeley IGS poll released Friday.
The poll, conducted Aug. 3-9 among likely voters for the November general election, found 48% inclined to vote Yes on Proposition 40, while 41% said they would vote No and 11% remained undecided. The measure would impose a one-time 5% tax on certain taxpayers with assets over $1 billion, with revenue primarily directed toward health care.
Proposition 40 Holds Narrow Lead
Awareness of the measure is also high. 72% of likely voters said they had heard of Proposition 40, while awareness of the two counter initiatives, Propositions 41 and 42, stood at 27%.
The poll showed a sharp partisan divide. 70% of Democrats supported Proposition 40, compared with 12% of Republicans. Among voters with no party preference or other nonpartisans, 50% supported the measure and 39% opposed it.
The California Democratic Party endorsed Proposition 40 earlier this month despite opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.). The party’s executive board narrowly approved the measure after earlier votes failed to secure enough support.
Newsom has opposed California’s proposal while supporting a federal minimum tax on Americans with more than $100 million in assets.
Billionaire Opposition Grows
The proposal has also drawn opposition from some of California’s wealthiest residents. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) co-founder Sergey Brin has opposed the measure and contributed to a political advocacy group fighting it.
Brin’s opposition came after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) criticized his spending against the proposal. Sanders said Brin could face a $14 billion tax if the measure passes, while reporting cited in the article put Brin’s net worth at $260 billion.
Earlier, tax adviser David Lesperance said seven wealthy Californians had already left the state ahead of the proposed tax, while venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya said he would remain in California and pay the tax.
Startup Concerns Add to Debate
The measure has also prompted concerns about California’s startup ecosystem. Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban warned that the proposed tax could discourage investment and push high-value startups and their founders out of the state.
Cuban said startup founders can become “cash poor, stock rich” after their companies reach billion-dollar valuations and argued that investors could favor companies outside California if the measure passes.
Proposition 40’s supporters have said the measure would help fund health care, food assistance and state budget needs. The Berkeley IGS poll found its strongest regional support in Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area, while opposition was higher in Orange County, the Central Valley and the North Coast/Sierras region.
The survey included 4,207 registered voters, with 2,310 weighted as likely voters for the November general election. The poll has an estimated sampling error of approximately 2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Disclaimer: This content was produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.T
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