Great Hill Capital founder Tom Hayes believes Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK) (NYSE:BRK) will fail to beat the S&P 500 over the next decade, declaring the conglomerate’s era of market outperformance is “done.” Instead, the contrarian investor is placing high-conviction turnaround bets on beaten-down equities like PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC).
The Case Against Berkshire Hathaway
Speaking on the Forged in America Podcast, Hayes delivered his stark assessment when asked if Berkshire Hathaway could beat the S&P 500 over the next 10 years. “No, it’s done,” Hayes stated flatly.
He attributed his thesis to the “law of large numbers,” Warren Buffett’s eventual absence, and severe capital-allocation hurdles. Hayes noted that conglomerates trade at a discount historically, predicting Berkshire could eventually face pressure to break up its operating units to realize its underlying value as Buffett is no longer at the helm.
Pivoting to Distressed Value Bets
Rather than holding overcapitalized giants or chasing hot AI momentum, Hayes focuses on high-quality businesses trading at distressed valuations.
He highlighted PayPal as a key conviction play, citing its $6 billion in annual free cash flow, aggressive share buybacks, and unpriced growth drivers like Venmo and its ad platform.
Addressing another controversial pick, Hayes recalled buying Intel at $19 while critics mocked the legacy chipmaker. “I watch Tom talk about Intel and people… it’s like people are laughing,” host Ravin Gandhi noted, before watching the stock rebound significantly. Hayes emphasized that Intel’s critical role in national security made its turnaround thesis straightforward.
Warning Against AI Hyperscalers
Hayes cautioned retail investors against crowded trades in semiconductor and memory stocks, warning that hyped assets like Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) and memory producers are “priced for perfection.”
According to Hayes, “If they miss by 1% these stocks will not go down 1%. They will go down 70%.” He stressed that the market’s biggest opportunities exist where independent thinking meets short-term market dislocation.
How Have PYPL and INTC Performed In 2026?
PYPL shares rose 4.92% year-to-date, declined 11.30% over the last year, and rose 46.78% over the last six months. It closed 1.36% higher at $61.25 per share on Wednesday, and it was 0.16% lower in premarket trading on Thursday.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that PYPL maintains a strong price trend in the long, short and medium terms, with a poor growth score.
INTC shares surged 151.49% year-to-date, 266.65% over the last year, and rose 107.98% over the last six months. It closed 4.02% lower at $92.80 per share on Wednesday, and it was 0.22% higher in premarket trading on Thursday.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that INTC maintains a weak price trend in the short and medium terms but a weak trend in the long term.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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