Anthropic’s reported potential $2 trillion valuation would require investors to underwrite an extraordinary combination of growth and margin expansion, while also taking lessons from Space Exploration Technologies Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) turbulent transition from private-market darling to public company, says Dr Chan Ahn, founder and CEO of Tessera PE and a former Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executive.
The central question is whether the economics of Anthropic’s business can justify the numbers that would make it one of the world’s most valuable companies.
Profitability: The Biggest Challenge
Dr. Chan Ahn says Anthropic would need roughly $725 billion in revenue by 2036 to justify a $2 trillion valuation, assuming a 10% cost of equity, a 25% free cash flow margin and a 25x terminal multiple. At a 13% discount rate, the revenue requirement rises to about $950 billion.
Notably, Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate jumped to $65 billion by the end of July, reflecting surging enterprise demand for its Claude AI products. The figure is about seven times higher than a year ago and up significantly from the $47 billion run rate reported in May.
The bigger challenge is profitability. Anthropic’s projected Q2 operating margin is just 5.1%, meaning its free cash flow margin would need to expand dramatically even as the company continues investing heavily in computing and competing on price.
"You can underwrite the growth or you can underwrite the margin. Underwriting both at once is the leap being asked of public investors."
Ahn also warns against comparing Anthropic’s forward revenue multiple with rivals such as Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) and Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS), arguing that annualized consumption revenue lacks the certainty of contracted revenue.
SpaceX’s IPO Offers Valuation Lesson
Dr. Chan Ahn argues that SpaceX’s IPO did not expose a simple gap between private and public valuations. SpaceX entered public markets at roughly its $1.77 trillion IPO valuation, with shares surging 67% above the $135 IPO price before later giving up those gains.
The bigger lesson, he says, is that private valuations are based on limited transactions with selected investors, while public markets must absorb much larger and less selective selling. Ahn argues that SpaceX’s post-IPO decline was driven more by earnings scrutiny and disclosure than by the August insider-share unlock.
SpaceX’s revenue surged 92% to $7.8 billion, while it posted a $541 million net loss, albeit narrower than a year earlier.
Ahn argues that the key risk for future IPOs is not the lock-up expiration, but the “first earnings report,” when companies must face the scrutiny of public-market investors rather than private investors who already have conviction. This distinction provides a useful framework for assessing whether Anthropic’s lofty private-market valuation can withstand the far tougher test of public-market scrutiny.
$2 Trillion Valuation is Mostly Enterprise Workflows
The $2 trillion valuation is primarily a bet on the broader AI category, rather than Claude’s technological advantage alone, stated Dr Ahn.
Model leadership is temporary and must be repeatedly regained, while Claude’s stronger moat lies in distribution and enterprise workflows, particularly Claude Code’s integration into engineering processes, “where the customer is buying completed work rather than tokens.” However, that durable advantage likely supports only a modest portion of a $2 trillion valuation, according to him.
As the Wall Street Veteran’s analysis puts it, ultimately, investors are "buying a sector thesis through a single-name instrument, with the concentration risk that implies."
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