Cryptocurrency punters are skeptical that the U.S. will lower tariffs on Canada by the end of August, even as Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci predicts the two countries will reach a deal “very quickly.”
Polymarket Odds Crater
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket assigns only an 8% chance that a diplomatic agreement is announced by Aug. 31 to lower tariffs on Canada, down from 46% the week before.
The chances of an agreement being finalized by the end of 2026 were significantly higher, reaching 58%.
Carney Vows Retaliatory Tariffs
Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada collapsed on Friday, just minutes before the midnight deadline, triggering Washington’s threatened 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods. Each side accused the other of making unreasonable last-minute demands.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Ottawa will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods starting Sept. 8, matching the U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar.
Trade tensions continued to escalate this week after President Donald Trump threatened Monday to raise tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel to 50%.
Trump accused Canada of running a $60 billion trade surplus at America’s expense and of shutting out U.S. farm products.
Scaramucci Feels Deal Will Come Sooner Than Expected
Meanwhile, Scaramucci, former White House Communications Director, predicted a trade deal in the “next two weeks” during an episode of the “The Rest Is Politics US” podcast that aired on Monday.
“I think that’s the kind of most likely scenario,” he stated. “He [Trump] is getting pressure on him from these northern states, and he’s got a midterm election coming, and he’s going to TACO [Trump always chickens out] on this situation, as he always does.”
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